Executive summary
- Cleveland-Cliffs, the US steelmaker that also owns Canada’s Stelco, reported its third-quarter 2026 results on 19 October. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $612 million from $286 million in the second quarter, above its own guidance of $575 million.
- The gain came mostly from price. The average selling price rose to $1,177 per net ton, about $1,297 per metric tonne on our calculation, up 4.7% on the quarter and 14.1% on the year.
- In Canada, Cliffs is idling the galvanising lines at its Stelco unit indefinitely. It blames an oversupplied Canadian galvanised market and is moving Stelco’s output towards hot-rolled coil. Canadian Press reported up to 500 layoffs.
- Cliffs expects about $715 million of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter and more than $4 billion in 2027.
What happened
Cleveland-Cliffs published its third-quarter results on 19 October 2026. Revenue was $5.6 billion, against $5.2 billion in the second quarter. Steel shipments rose to 4.15 million net tons from 4.03 million. The company returned to a net profit of $165 million, or $0.26 per diluted share, after a net loss of $134 million in the second quarter. Adjusted earnings were $0.28 per share. The company called it its strongest quarter in three years (Cleveland-Cliffs results release).
Hot-rolled steel made up 46% of shipments, coated steel 31%, cold-rolled 15%, plate 4% and stainless and electrical steel 4%. Of $5.4 billion in steelmaking revenue, distributors and converters took 34%, the automotive industry 28%, infrastructure and manufacturing 28% and other steel producers 10%. The company said imports into the US remain well below historical levels and that lead times are extended. It had $3.2 billion of liquidity at the end of the quarter and aims to bring net debt below 2.5 times EBITDA by mid-2027.
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Advertise with LoharoThe same release said Cliffs will idle Stelco’s galvanising lines indefinitely because the Canadian galvanised market is oversupplied. The company said Stelco will keep its overall tonnage by focusing on hot-rolled steel, which preserves about 2,000 Canadian jobs. According to the Canadian Press, as reported by BNN Bloomberg, the move means up to 500 layoffs at Stelco’s Ontario operations. On the earnings call, chief executive Lourenco Goncalves said the Canadian market cannot support galvanised production at both Stelco and ArcelorMittal Dofasco while imports keep coming in, and that workers would come back if Ottawa blocks or reduces galvanised imports, the agency reported. Stelco makes hot-rolled coil at Lake Erie Works in Nanticoke and cold-rolled and coated steel at Hamilton Works.
Cliffs expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of about $715 million and a large cut in debt in the quarter. For 2027 it expects adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion, which it says is based on contracts already signed and on forecasts for steel price indices.
Key numbers
$612m adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026, up from $286m in Q2 and above $575m guidance FactCleveland-Cliffs, 19 Oct 2026
$1,177 average selling price per net ton, from $1,124 in Q2 and $1,032 a year earlier FactCleveland-Cliffs, 19 Oct 2026
≈$1,297/t the same price per metric tonne (1 net ton = 0.907 t); +4.7% on the quarter, +14.1% on the year Calc.Cleveland-Cliffs, 19 Oct 2026
31% share of Q3 shipments that were coated steel FactCleveland-Cliffs, 19 Oct 2026
Up to 500 layoffs at Stelco’s Ontario operations as the galvanising lines idle ReportedCanadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, 19 Oct 2026
~$715m adjusted EBITDA the company expects in Q4 2026 FactCleveland-Cliffs, 19 Oct 2026
Fact = supported by the cited primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessment · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = an attributed claim not independently confirmed · Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises.
Why it matters
Analysis The quarter shows how far US flat-steel prices have moved away from the rest of the world behind high tariffs. Cliffs’ realised price of about $1,297 a metric tonne is an average across all its products, including coated and automotive steel, so it is not a hot-rolled coil quote. But the direction is clear: it rose $145 a net ton in a year while shipments grew only about 3%. Our Section 232 landed-cost guide shows what an importer pays to get coil into that market.
Analysis The Canadian move matters more for European exporters. Cliffs is cutting galvanised output in Canada and saying openly that imports are the problem. Goncalves linked a restart to Ottawa blocking or reducing galvanised imports. Canada already applies tariff-rate quotas and surtaxes to steel imports (see our guide to Canada’s steel quotas and surtaxes). If coated steel gets tighter limits, mills and traders that send galvanised coil from Europe to Canada would face a smaller opening. If no new limits come, the idled lines leave more room for imports and for ArcelorMittal Dofasco.
Analysis Cliffs’ outlook also matters for the wider market. Fourth-quarter guidance of about $715 million would be $103 million above the third quarter, roughly 17% more on our calculation. A US producer that expects a stronger 2027 has little reason to cut prices, which keeps the gap with European and Asian prices wide.
Who is affected
- European exporters of galvanised coil to Canada: watch whether Ottawa answers Stelco with new limits on coated steel imports.
- Canadian buyers of galvanised steel: one domestic source is idle for an unknown period. Supply now depends more on ArcelorMittal Dofasco and imports.
- US flat-steel buyers: Cliffs is getting higher prices and expects more profit in the fourth quarter and in 2027, which points to firm offers.
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What to watch
- Ottawa’s response: whether Canada tightens quotas or surtaxes on galvanised imports, which Cliffs links to a restart of the lines.
- Cliffs’ fourth-quarter results: whether adjusted EBITDA reaches about $715 million and debt falls as planned.
- US price direction: whether the average selling price keeps rising, the main reason for the stronger quarter.
Verification status: Verified
- Results, outlook and the Stelco decision are supported by the Cleveland-Cliffs results release of 19 October 2026. The layoff figure and the chief executive’s call remarks are attributed to the Canadian Press. Per-tonne figures are Loharo calculations. Last fact-check: 26 October 2026.
- Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.
Ask the Analyst
“1,000 t HRC from Turkey into Canada”: landed cost with duty, quota and CBAM in one answer.Ask the AnalystSources
Primary sources
- Cleveland-Cliffs Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results — Cleveland-Cliffs, 19 October 2026
Supporting sources
- Stelco posts strongest quarter since Cleveland-Cliffs takeover amid layoffs — The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, 19 October 2026
- Cleveland-Cliffs to indefinitely idle Stelco galvanizing lines in Hamilton — tdotnews, 20 October 2026
Related on Loharo
- Canada’s steel quotas and surtaxes: what an importer pays in 2026
- US Section 232 steel tariffs in 2026: what an importer of hot-rolled coil pays
- Nippon Steel’s U.S. Steel approves a nearly $3bn hot strip mill at Mon Valley
- Cleveland-Cliffs commits $1 billion to Middletown Works, keeping the blast furnace route
Last fact-check: 26 October 2026 (Europe/Amsterdam).
