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Trade & Tariffs

China’s September steel exports: 10.49 Mt, below the ship-tracking estimate

China's September steel exports were 10.49 Mt, the fifth month above 10 Mt but below the 11.04 Mt ship-tracking estimate. January–September is down 2.6%.

By Loharo EditorialPublished Updated 2 min read
Illustration of hot-rolled steel coils and billets being loaded onto a bulk carrier at a Chinese port
Illustration of steel coils being loaded for export at a Chinese port

China exported 10.49 million tonnes of steel in September, official customs data showed on 14 October. That is the fifth month in a row above 10 Mt, but lower than the 11.04 Mt that ship-tracking had pointed to.

What happened

China’s General Administration of Customs reported September steel exports of 10.492 Mt and January–September exports of 85.641 Mt, down 2.6% on a year earlier (Mysteel, SMM). Imports were 0.492 Mt in September.

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  • September exports were about 3.3% higher than August’s 10.155 Mt (Loharo calculation from customs figures).
  • Mysteel’s ship-tracking had estimated 11.04 Mt of September loadings, so official exports came in about 0.55 Mt lower (calculation). We reported that estimate in our China exports update.
  • The year-to-date decline narrowed from 3.0% after August to 2.6% after September.
  • Chinese HRC export offers slipped $1–2/t on the week to about $490–494/t FOB on 14 October, with some North China mills below $490 (SMM).

Uncertain The headline customs release does not give a September year-on-year change or a breakdown by destination or product. CISA’s detailed report, usually out late in the month, will show how much was billet and how much went to Europe.

Why it matters for steel buyers

Chinese steel at around $490/t FOB is far below the €740–750/t EU price, but EU buyers can barely use it. The 50% out-of-quota duty, exhausted Q4 quotas and CBAM costs all apply (see our CBAM landed-cost worked example). The bigger effect is indirect: Chinese tonnes displace Indian, Vietnamese and Turkish steel in third markets, pushing those suppliers to compete harder for EU quota on reset dates.

Steady exports above 10 Mt a month also keep trade-defence pressure high in Brussels, as EUROFER and 43 other associations demanded last week.

What to watch

  • CISA’s September breakdown, especially billet and exports to the EU.
  • Whether October loadings stay high after five straight months above 10 Mt.
  • Pressure on Asian origins at the January quota reset.

Ask the Analyst

“1,000 t HRC from China into Rotterdam at €540/t CFR”: landed cost with duty, quota and CBAM in one answer.Ask the Analyst

Sources

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By Loharo Editorial. Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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