POSCO will sell 570,000 t less steel in Q4 while it relines a Gwangyang blast furnace: what EU coil buyers should check

POSCO expects to sell about 570,000 tonnes less steel in the fourth quarter than in the third, because it is relining blast furnace No. 2 at its Gwangyang works and repairing the hot-rolling and casting lines linked to it. The effect runs into early 2027, and the company says it will protect its Korean customers first. For EU buyers this matters because South Korea is one of the largest holders of EU hot-rolled coil quota. If you are counting on Korean hot-rolled coil for December–March arrivals, confirm the mill, tonnage and shipment month with your supplier now.

What POSCO reported

POSCO Holdings said on 2 November that third-quarter operating profit rose about 48% from a year earlier to about 945 billion won, on revenue of 19.1 trillion won, according to its regulatory filing (in Korean), as also reported by Yonhap (in Korean) and BusinessPost (in Korean). Steel drove the improvement. The steelmaking company POSCO made an operating profit of 455.1 billion won on revenue of 9.96 trillion won (its separate filing, in Korean), 181 billion won more than in the second quarter but 22% less than a year earlier.

On the earnings call, POSCO said key raw material costs rose 4.4% from the second quarter as coking coal prices climbed. It offset this by raising its average carbon-steel selling price by about 20,000 won a tonne, to 982,000 won, and by running its steelmaking at about 90% of capacity before the relining. Its operating margin rose from 2.5% in the first quarter and 2.9% in the second to 4.6%. In the third quarter, the share of its sales made in Korea rose to 55.6%, from 51.9% in 2025.

The relining will cut fourth-quarter product output by about 920,000 tonnes and sales by about 570,000 tonnes against the third quarter, POSCO said, and the effect will continue into the first quarter of 2027. It built stock in advance and will adjust sales by market and product to limit disruption for domestic customers (Newspim, in Korean). Its marketing head said it is negotiating further price increases with major customers in the second half.

Loharo calculation: POSCO’s cut against Korea’s EU quota

	Tonnes	Basis
POSCO fourth-quarter sales cut versus third quarter	about 570,000	POSCO, earnings call
Export share of POSCO sales	44.4%	100% − 55.6% domestic share
Exports lost if the cut were spread pro rata	about 253,000	570,000 × 44.4% (illustration only)
South Korea’s remaining EU hot-rolled (1A) quota, Q4 2026	77,888	TARIC, read 2 November: balance after the 27 October allocation, including 10,239 t carried over from Q3
Rate at which that quota has been used	about 1,770 a day	1–27 October (Loharo quota report)

Analysis Even the pro-rata illustration takes out several times the duty-free hot-rolled room Korea still has for the EU this quarter. POSCO has also said it will look after domestic customers first, so exports are likely to carry more of the cut than the pro-rata share. That is an inference; POSCO has not given a split. If it holds, Korea’s quota may stay open for longer, at the current pace into the second week of December, because fewer cargoes arrive, not because supply is plentiful.

What it means for EU buyers

Analysis Buyers who use Korean hot-rolled coil to fill gaps left by exhausted quotas, such as Türkiye’s and India’s (our Q4 quota report), should not assume extra Korean tonnes for December to March. Ask whether the cargo is from POSCO or another mill, and when it ships. POSCO’s push for further price rises at home also points to firmer Korean offers, although its comments were about domestic contracts.

Analysis For your contracts: POSCO said the CBAM certificate cost falls on EU importers, that it will make provisions from 2027 and that it will negotiate with customers to limit the impact. In 2027 contracts with Korean mills, state who bears the certificate cost and ask for installation-specific emissions data, so you are not charged at default values. Certificate sales start in February 2027 (our CBAM guide).

What to watch

• Weekly: South Korea’s EU hot-rolled quota balance on TARIC, to see whether the pace slows.
• Fourth quarter: whether POSCO says the relining is complete on time, and how its price talks with major Korean customers end.
• 1 January 2027: EU quotas for the first quarter of 2027 open.

Sources

Primary sources

• 연결재무제표기준영업(잠정)실적(공정공시) (Consolidated provisional operating results, Q3 2026, in Korean) — POSCO Holdings regulatory filing, DART, 2 November 2026
• 영업(잠정)실적(공정공시) (Provisional operating results of subsidiary POSCO, Q3 2026, in Korean) — POSCO Holdings regulatory filing, DART, 2 November 2026
• POSCO Holdings Q3 2026 earnings call transcript — POSCO Holdings, 2 November 2026, via Stock Analysis
• Tariff quota 09.9806, South Korea, hot-rolled (1A), Q4 2026 — European Commission TARIC quota consultation, read 2 November 2026

Supporting sources

• 포스코홀딩스, 3분기 영업익 9천400억…”철강값 추가 인상 협상” (POSCO Holdings Q3 operating profit; further steel price talks, in Korean) — Yonhap, 2 November 2026
• 포스코홀딩스 3분기 영업이익 9450억 48% 증가 (POSCO Holdings Q3 operating profit up 48%, in Korean) — BusinessPost, 2 November 2026
• 포스코 “고로 개보수로 4분기 판매 57만t 감소 전망” (POSCO expects Q4 sales down 570,000 t on furnace relining, in Korean) — Newspim, 2 November 2026

Related on Loharo

• EU steel quotas four weeks into Q4: 65 of 283 lines used up, and most duty-free hot-rolled room sits with eight origins
• EU steel tariff quotas three months in: 50% duty, melt-and-pour proof and a looming Q1 2027 crunch
• CBAM Q3 price set at €82.32: what steel importers will owe for 2026 imports, and when the bill lands

Last fact-check: 2 November 2026.