Executive summary
- The EU-27 produced 10.1 Mt of crude steel in September 2026, 5.0% less than a year earlier, according to worldsteel. Year-to-date EU output is now 94.5 Mt, down 0.8%.
- Germany drove the fall: output dropped 13.0% to 2.6 Mt. The German steel federation WV Stahl says steel from the blast-furnace (oxygen) route fell about 20%, while electric-arc steel rose.
- Italy’s crude output rose 2.1% to 1.9 Mt, but its hot-rolled flat output fell 17.0% to 736,000 t, Federacciai figures show.
- World output was almost flat at 142.4 Mt (−0.2%). AnalysisFor EU flat-steel buyers, thinner home supply meets an import regime that caps duty-free tonnage at 18.3 Mt a year, so availability, not price, is the variable to watch into early 2027.
Key numbers
10.1 Mt EU-27 crude steel output, Sep 2026 (−5.0% y/y) Factworldsteel
−13.0% Germany crude steel output, Sep 2026 (2.6 Mt) Factworldsteel
−20.2% German oxygen-route steel, Sep 2026 (1.70 Mt) FactWV Stahl (German)
736,000 t Italy hot-rolled flat output, Sep 2026 (−17.0% y/y) FactFederacciai via SteelOrbis
≈0.4 Mt Germany’s share of the EU’s ≈0.5 Mt year-on-year fall in September Calc.Loharo, from worldsteel figures
€748/t Northern Europe HRC index, ex-works, 22 Oct FactFastmarkets via Eurometal
Fact = supported by the cited primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessment · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = an attributed claim not independently confirmed · Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises.
What happened
The World Steel Association published its September 2026 production data on 23 October. The 70 countries that report to worldsteel, which made about 98% of the world’s steel in 2025, produced 142.4 Mt in September, 0.2% less than in September 2025. January–September output was 1,367.5 Mt, down 0.7%.
The European Union was one of the weaker regions. EU-27 mills made 10.1 Mt, 5.0% below last year. A month ago, after the August data, the EU’s year-to-date output was roughly flat at 84.5 Mt (−0.3%), as we reported in our August production review. It is now 0.8% down.
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Advertise with Loharo| Region / country | Sep 2026 (Mt) | y/y | Jan–Sep 2026 (Mt) | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World (70 countries) | 142.4 | −0.2% | 1,367.5 | −0.7% |
| EU-27 | 10.1 | −5.0% | 94.5 | −0.8% |
| Germany | 2.6 | −13.0% | 26.5 | +4.0% |
| Italy* | 1.9 | +2.1% | 15.9 | +2.4% |
| China | 73.6 | +0.1% | – | – |
| India | 13.9 | +1.9% | – | – |
| North America | 9.3 | +3.4% | – | – |
| Middle East | 3.6 | −20.4% | – | – |
Germany’s steel federation, Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, released its own September figures (in German) on 22 October. They match worldsteel: 2.627 Mt of crude steel, 13.0% below September 2025. Oxygen-route steel, made from blast-furnace iron, fell 20.2% to 1.697 Mt, and pig iron output fell 19.9%. Electric-arc steel rose 4.3% to 929,000 t. Hot-rolled steel products were down 10.6% at 2.322 Mt. WV Stahl did not give a reason for the drop in its release.
WV Stahl now projects German output for the full year at 35.4 Mt, 4% up on last year, based on the first nine months. After the first half it had projected 37.3 Mt (+9%). The federation says the recovery has clearly cooled. German output was still up 6.3% year to date after August, according to worldsteel’s August release; after September it is up 4.0% at 26.5 Mt.
Italy went the other way at headline level. Federacciai data, reported by Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor (in Italian) and SteelOrbis, show 1.9 Mt of crude steel in September, up 2.1% after falls in July and August, and 15.9 Mt (+2.4%) for the nine months. The product split matters more for buyers. Hot-rolled long products were unchanged at 1.2 Mt, while hot-rolled flat products fell 17.0% to 736,000 t. Over nine months, longs are up 4.7% at 9.6 Mt and flats are down 4.2% at 6.5 Mt. For the situation at Taranto, Italy’s largest flat-steel works, see our latest report on the court case.
Elsewhere, China produced 73.6 Mt (+0.1%) and India 13.9 Mt (+1.9%). North America grew 3.4% to 9.3 Mt, with US output estimated by worldsteel at 7.2 Mt (+4.3%). Middle East output fell 20.4% to 3.6 Mt, and Viet Nam rose 29.1% to 2.6 Mt. The US figure is a worldsteel estimate, and national monthly data can be revised.
Why it matters commercially
- EU home supply shrank just as import room is capped. Under the EU Steel Regulation, in application since 1 July 2026, duty-free quotas total 18.3 Mt a year and tonnage above quota pays a 50% duty, according to the European Commission. AnalysisWith imports limited, a 5% drop in EU output is felt more directly by buyers than it would have been under the old safeguard.
- The German fall is in the blast-furnace route. By Loharo’s calculation from worldsteel’s rounded figures, EU output fell by about 0.5 Mt year on year in September, and Germany accounts for about 0.4 Mt of that. WV Stahl’s data show the drop sits in oxygen steel. AnalysisIn Europe most flat steel, including hot-rolled coil, comes from the blast-furnace route, so this is the supply most exposed. Without a stated reason, buyers should ask their German suppliers directly whether the shortfall is temporary.
- Italian flat supply was thin in September. Italy’s flat output fell 17% while its longs held up. Fastmarkets, reported via Eurometal, says Arvedi has reportedly restarted a hot-rolling line that stopped at the end of September because of technical problems. AnalysisThat should ease Italian coil supply somewhat in the fourth quarter, but it does not replace Taranto.
- Prices have not reacted yet. Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe hot-rolled coil index was €748.00/t ex-works on 22 October and its Italy index €738.75/t, with trade described as quiet. Import buying was limited because fourth-quarter quotas for the key suppliers, Türkiye and India, have already been exceeded, according to the same report. AnalysisFalling output with stable prices points to weak demand; if demand picks up in early 2027, tight supply could move prices quickly.
Who is affected
Flat-steel buyers in Germany and BeneluxTighter supply German oxygen-route steel fell about 20% in September.
Italian coil users and service centresThin supply Italian hot-rolled flat output fell 17%; one line has reportedly restarted.
Importers and tradersQuota-bound Fourth-quarter quotas for Türkiye and India are reported as already used up.
Long-product buyers in ItalyStable Italian hot-rolled long output was unchanged year on year.
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What to watch next
- Late November: WV Stahl’s and worldsteel’s October figures, to show whether German oxygen-route output recovers. The September data came out on 22 and 23 October.
- 1 January 2027: the first-quarter quota period under the EU Steel Regulation opens, which may release import cargoes held back in the fourth quarter.
- Italy: whether Italian flat output recovers in October once the restarted hot-rolling line is counted.
Verification status: Verified
- Material factual claims are supported by appropriate primary sources or clearly attributed reporting and market assessments; Loharo analysis is labelled separately. Last fact-check: 24 October 2026.
- Italian figures were checked against two reports of Federacciai’s data, one in Italian (Radiocor) and one in English (SteelOrbis).
- The German production split (oxygen and electric steel, pig iron, hot-rolled products) and the full-year projection come from a single German-language source, WV Stahl, and are not yet confirmed elsewhere.
- The Arvedi restart and the fourth-quarter quota position are market reports attributed to Fastmarkets via Eurometal. The 0.5 Mt and 0.4 Mt figures are Loharo calculations from rounded data.
- Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.
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Primary sources
- September 2026 crude steel production — World Steel Association (worldsteel), 23 October 2026
- August 2026 crude steel production — World Steel Association (worldsteel), 24 September 2026
- Rohstahlerzeugung im September 2026: Erholungstrend unterbrochen — Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl, 22 October 2026 (German)
- Commission sets type of evidence to be provided by importers to prove country of ‘melt and pour’ of steel products subject to EU Steel Regulation — European Commission, DG Trade, 31 August 2026
- Factsheet: EU steel measure — European Commission, DG Trade
Supporting sources
- Federacciai: +2,1% a 1,9 mln ton. produzione settembre, +2,4% a 15,9 mln ton. in 9 mesi — Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor via Borsa Italiana, 20 October 2026 (Italian)
- Italy’s crude steel output resumes uptrend in Sept 2026, flats output down 17 percent — SteelOrbis, 20 October 2026
- European domestic, import hot-rolled coil markets largely quiet, prices stable — Eurometal (Fastmarkets), 23 October 2026
Last fact-check: 23 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.
