EU mills seek €100–150/t more for 2027 coil contracts; buyers expect €50–80/t

What happened

European flat-steel producers have started negotiating next year’s supply contracts with car makers, their suppliers and other large buyers. In Northwest Europe, mills are seeking increases of €100–150/t over contracts for the second half of 2026, both for first-half 2027 deals and for full-year 2027 deals. Market participants believe the contracts will in the end settle about €50–80/t higher, according to the weekly coil round-up by McCloskey by OPIS published on EUROMETAL on 26 October.

Argus reported on 19 October that some producers had proposed a €100/t rise in first-half 2027 automotive contracts, and that one EU mill had offered HRC at €860/t and hot-dip galvanised coil (HDG) at €960/t to some car makers. A tier 1 automotive supplier told Argus that “a double digit increase close to €70/t may be accepted by buyers when compared to last year’s negotiations”. The same supplier said mills have been slowly raising output and will feel some pressure to sell.

At the Euroblech sheet-metal fair in Hanover last week, buyers who held early talks heard contract offers about €100/t above spot prices, or €840–860/t for HRC and €940–960/t for HDG, mill and buyer sources told Kallanish, as published by EUROMETAL. A manager at a re-rolling buyer said “a gap of €100 between spot and contract is clearly too big in the current market situation”. A mill manager pointed to the winter of 2023–24, when spot prices rose by more than €120/t between October and February and the buyers who had closed their deals by December did best.

The spot market moved up in the week to 23 October. Deals for domestic HRC in Northwest Europe were done at €750–770/t ex-works and McCloskey assessed the price at €760/t, up €10. Offers for first-quarter delivery reached €790–800/t delivered, and some mills said they were sold out of HRC for the first quarter. In Italy, domestic HRC was reported at €740–750/t ex-works. Trading stayed thin. Distributors cleared large volumes through customs in June, before stricter quotas started in July, and with demand still weak they are taking longer than usual to run those stocks down (EUROMETAL).

Imports are no longer much cheaper. Imported HRC was offered at €740/t duty-paid at Italian ports for material already there and up to €800/t for new orders, and McCloskey put Northwest Europe duty-paid port HRC at €780/t. The Argus index for Northwest European HRC rose from €626/t ex-works on 2 January to €739.50/t on 16 October. Argus said HRC imports in July and August averaged about 400,000 t a month, against close to 780,000 t a month in January to June (Argus).

What the gap means in euros

Analysis The difference between what mills ask and what the market expects is large enough to matter in a budget. For a buyer taking 10,000 t of HRC a year, the mills’ ask of €100–150/t would add €1.0–1.5 million to the annual bill compared with the second half of 2026. A settlement of €50–80/t would add €0.5–0.8 million. The amount still in play between the two sides is therefore €0.2–1.0 million per 10,000 t, depending on where each lands. These are Loharo calculations from the reported ranges, not prices any buyer has agreed.

Analysis Set against spot, the €840–860/t offers sit €80–100/t above the €760/t assessment. Spot offers for first-quarter delivery at €790–800/t delivered already close part of that gap. If spot keeps climbing into the new year, as the mill side expects, a contract signed early at a moderate increase would look cheap. If weak demand and high stocks hold spot near €760/t, an early high settlement would leave a buyer paying over the market. Our look back at the 2020–22 boom and bust shows how both outcomes have hurt buyers before.

Why it matters

Analysis This is the first round of annual talks since the EU’s tighter quotas started in July, and the mills’ case rests on them. With imports cut by about half and duty-paid import offers at or above domestic prices, buyers have fewer ways to put pressure on European mills than in past years. See our guide to the EU tariff quota regime and our CBAM landed-cost example for how those costs add up.

Analysis Buyers still have arguments. Demand is weak, distributors are holding large stocks, and mills have been raising output. Argus’s source expects a figure near €70/t, which is inside the €50–80/t range reported by EUROMETAL. Together the reports point to a settlement well below the mills’ opening ask, but above the second half of 2026.

Who is affected

• Car makers and automotive suppliers: the first-half 2027 talks are under way now, with HRC offers reported at €860/t and HDG at €960/t.
• Service centres and re-rollers on annual contracts: they face the same opening ask while still holding stock bought in June.
• Spot buyers: first-quarter offers at €790–800/t delivered and some mills sold out for the quarter leave less room to wait.

What to watch

• First settlements: whether early automotive deals land near €70/t or closer to the €100/t opening.
• Spot direction: whether deals move from €750–770/t ex-works towards the €790–800/t first-quarter offers.
• Stocks and demand: how quickly distributors work down the June stock, which decides how much buyers can hold out.

Sources

Primary sources

• European coil and green steel round-up — McCloskey by OPIS via EUROMETAL, 26 October 2026
• EU steel mills propose €100/t 2027 auto contracts rise — Argus, 19 October 2026

Supporting sources

• Euroblech: European coil mills express optimism over annual contracts — Kallanish via EUROMETAL, 23 October 2026

Related on Loharo

• European HRC holds at €740–760/t as quota exhaustion shuts the cheap import window
• EU steel tariff quotas three months in: 50% duty, melt-and-pour proof and a looming Q1 2027 crunch
• How CBAM feeds into the landed cost of imported steel: a worked example
• Looking back at steel’s 2020–22 boom and bust: lessons for contracts, stock and credit

Last fact-check: 26 October 2026 (Europe/Amsterdam).