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Salzgitter raises 2026 guidance for a third time, but its Aurubis stake supplied 38% of nine-month EBITDA

Salzgitter raised its 2026 EBITDA VX guidance to €800–875 million on 28 October, its third upgrade this year. Its Aurubis copper stake supplied €252 million of €659 million nine-month EBITDA VX; for steel buyers, the impact is limited for now.

By Mara AlvestadPublished 3 min read
Illustration: glowing steel strip on the roller table of a hot-strip rolling mill
Illustration of hot-rolled strip running through a flat-steel rolling mill

Salzgitter raised its 2026 earnings guidance on 28 October for the third time this year, after preliminary nine-month figures (Salzgitter ad hoc release, 28 October). It now expects EBITDA VX of €800–875 million, up from €725–825 million. But €252 million of its €659 million nine-month EBITDA VX, or 38%, came from its stake in the copper producer Aurubis, not from steel. For buyers of Salzgitter flat steel and plate, the direct impact is limited for now.

What happened

Nine-month external sales rose to €7.3 billion, from €6.9 billion a year earlier. EBITDA VX, which strips out valuation effects from an exchangeable bond issued in October 2025, reached €659 million. Salzgitter compares this with €224 million of EBITDA in the same period of 2025, before the bond adjustment existed. EBT VX was €353 million, against a pre-tax loss of €72.7 million.

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The company said the Aurubis contribution was again strong in the third quarter, and that its Steel Production and Trading units did better than it had recently expected. Group EBITDA VX and EBT VX beat capital-market expectations for the quarter. Sales guidance stays at about €10 billion. The full takeover of the Duisburg mill HKM is included in the guidance and should add a mid-double-digit million euro sum to 2026 earnings, Salzgitter says. It says forecasting reliability remains limited in the final quarter because of geopolitical uncertainty.

The guidance started the year at €500–600 million and was raised in April and July. Jefferies analyst Cole Hathorn said EBITDA beat analyst consensus by 30%, and that about 80% of the beat came from Aurubis and the rest from steel production and trading (dpa-AFX via Investing.com, in German).

What it means for buyers

Analysis On Loharo’s calculation from Salzgitter’s figures, third-quarter EBITDA VX was about €200 million (nine months minus the first half), of which about €59 million came from Aurubis. That leaves about €141 million from the rest of the group, against roughly €133 million in each of the first two quarters. The quarters are not like-for-like: HKM, taken over shortly after the end of June, is fully consolidated only in the third quarter. The new range also implies fourth-quarter EBITDA VX of about €141–216 million, a wide band, in line with its warning on forecasting reliability.

Analysis So the upgrade says more about copper and HKM than about a step-change in steel earnings, and it carries no price or volume message for buyers. One step: before treating it as a sign of pricing strength in contract talks, check the Steel Production unit’s shipments and results in the full report on 12 November.

Verification status: Verified

  • Figures and guidance come from Salzgitter’s 28 October ad hoc release, which is preliminary; earlier guidance ranges come from its February, April and July releases. The Jefferies estimate is attributed via dpa-AFX. The quarterly split and implied fourth quarter are Loharo calculations. Last fact-check: 29 October 2026.
  • Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.

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Last fact-check: 29 October 2026.

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Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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