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Trade & Tariffs

Japan’s duties on Chinese and Taiwanese cold-rolled stainless start on 31 October; Taiwan’s EU quota is 60% used

Japan will charge anti-dumping duties of 27.7–42.1% on Chinese and 3.6–20.1% on Taiwanese nickel-containing cold-rolled stainless from 31 October. In the EU, Taiwan had used about 60% of its fourth-quarter quota for the product by 28 October; China under 3%.

By Tavishi BalanPublished 5 min read
Illustration: cold-rolled stainless steel coils stored in a port warehouse
Illustration of cold-rolled stainless steel coils waiting for customs clearance in a warehouse

Japan will charge anti-dumping duties of 27.7% to 42.1% on nickel-containing cold-rolled stainless steel from China, and 3.6% to 20.1% on the same product from Taiwan, from 31 October for five years (Japan’s Ministry of Finance). In the EU, Taiwanese mills had already used about 60% of their fourth-quarter quota for cold-rolled stainless by 28 October, while Chinese mills had used less than 3% of theirs. Buyers relying on Taiwanese coil should check now whether their cargoes will clear before Taiwan’s quota runs out.

What Japan decided

Japan’s cabinet approved the order on 27 October. It is published on 30 October and applies from 31 October 2026 to 30 October 2031. The rates are the same as the provisional duties in force since 9 July. The duties cover cold-rolled stainless coil, sheet and strip with at least 10.5% chromium and more than 0.6% nickel, so grades with less nickel are outside the measure. Hong Kong and Macao are excluded. Japan’s finance and trade ministries opened the investigation on 22 July 2025 (ministry notice, in Japanese).

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The Japan Iron and Steel Federation and two stainless and special steel associations welcomed the decision. They said they will keep monitoring other imports and ask the government for more trade remedies when needed (JISF statement).

Where the EU stands

The EU has had anti-dumping duties on cold-rolled stainless flat products from China and Taiwan since 2015. Its rules cover all grades, not just nickel-bearing ones. Since the 2021 renewal (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/1483), Chinese producers pay 24.4% to 25.3%. Taiwan’s Chia Far pays nothing and other Taiwanese producers pay 6.8%. Since 2024, cold-rolled stainless consigned from Taiwan pays the 19.3% duty on Indonesian material unless it was made by one of six named Taiwanese producers, which must show a mill certificate (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/1267).

The Commission opened an expiry review of the China and Taiwan duties on 15 September 2026, at the request of the European steel association EUROFER (notice of initiation). The duties stay in force while the review runs (basic anti-dumping regulation, Article 11(2)). The review should normally end within 12 months, and must end by 15 December 2027.

Cold-rolled stainless sheet and strip is also category 9 of the EU’s tariff quotas, with 496,342 t a year. Imports beyond a quota pay 50%, and Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 says that duty comes on top of other duties.

What the quota data show

Taiwan’s fourth-quarter line has 13,376 t, including 130 t carried over from the third quarter. After the 28 October allocation, 5,377 t was left (09.9867). In the third quarter Taiwan used all but those 130 t of its 13,246 t (Q3 line). China’s fourth-quarter line has 15,855 t, including 5,747 t carried over, and 15,405 t was left (09.9868). In the third quarter China used about 4,361 t of 10,108 t (Q3 line). The pool open to other countries had about 5 t left of 8,450 t (09.9611).

What it means for buyers

Analysis Japan’s duties make it harder for Chinese and Taiwanese mills to sell nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless there, which could push more of it towards other markets. Diversion to the EU looks most likely to run through Taiwan, because Taiwanese duties are low and its quota is close to full. China’s quota is barely used. That fits with the EU’s 24–25% duties holding Chinese material back, though the quota data alone cannot prove it. Japan’s rates come from a separate investigation, so its higher top rate does not show that EU duties are too low. Japan’s provisional duties have applied since July, so any redirection may already be in the third- and fourth-quarter figures. The data cannot separate it out.

Analysis At October’s pace (about 8,000 t in four weeks), Taiwan’s remaining 5,377 t would run out by mid-November. At the slower third-quarter average, it would last until early December. Both are Loharo projections, and the pace can change between allocations. Either way, the line is likely to run out before 31 December. A cargo cleared after it runs out pays 50% on top of the anti-dumping duty, which is up to 6.8% for the main Taiwanese producers.

One step: for Taiwanese cold-rolled stainless due in the fourth quarter, confirm the expected customs-clearance date with the supplier. Agree in the contract who pays if the cargo misses the quota, and require the producer’s mill certificate to avoid the 19.3% extended duty.

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What to watch

  • TARIC allocations in November: how fast Taiwan’s line 09.9867 falls, and whether China’s line starts to fill.
  • 1 January 2027: first-quarter quotas reopen.
  • The EU expiry review: the Commission’s findings, due by 15 December 2027 at the latest.

Verification status: Verified

  • Japan’s duty rates, scope and dates come from the Ministry of Finance’s 27 October notice, in its English provisional translation and the Japanese original. The EU rates, extension, review and quota rules were read in the Official Journal texts. Quota balances were read on the official TARIC pages on 30 October 2026 (after the 28 October allocation). Usage shares, pace and run-out estimates are Loharo calculations. Last fact-check: 30 October 2026.
  • Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.

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Last fact-check: 30 October 2026.

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Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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