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Trade & Tariffs

EU lowers planned anti-dumping duties on Turkish cold-rolled steel to 3–7.8% before its final ruling

A Commission revision dated 16 October, reported by EUROMETAL, cuts every Turkish rate in the EU cold-rolled flat steel case by 1.9–2.6 points. Turkey would become the lowest-duty origin of the five, below India. Duties apply only once the regulation is published, due by 18 November.

By Tavishi BalanPublished 7 min read
Illustration: bright cold-rolled steel coils stacked in a rolling mill coil yard under an overhead crane
Illustration of cold-rolled steel coils waiting in a mill coil yard

Executive summary

  • The European Commission has revised the anti-dumping duties it plans to impose on cold-rolled flat steel from Türkiye, according to a Commission document dated 16 October reported by EUROMETAL. The revision follows challenges by the Turkish exporters Borçelik and Tatmetal.
  • Borçelik and all other Turkish imports would pay 7.8% instead of 9.7%; Tatmetal 3.0% instead of 5.6%; other cooperating Turkish exporters 4.9% instead of 7.3%. The rates for India (9.5%), Japan (28%), Taiwan (20.7% or 27%) and Vietnam (16%) disclosed in August are unchanged in the reporting.
  • Loharo calculation: at an imported price of €720/t CIF, the revision lowers the duty on a tonne of Turkish coil by about €14–19. Every Turkish rate would now sit below India’s, which makes Türkiye the lowest-duty origin in the case.
  • Nothing is payable yet. The duties take effect only when the regulation is published in the Official Journal. Under the EU’s anti-dumping rules that must happen within 14 months of the case opening on 18 September 2025, so by about 18 November 2026. There is no retroactive collection.

What happened

The EU opened the investigation into cold-rolled flat steel from India, Japan, Taiwan, Türkiye and Vietnam on 18 September 2025, after a complaint by the European steel association EUROFER (notice of initiation, Official Journal). The investigation period ran from 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2025. In December 2025 the Commission made imports subject to registration (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2432), which would have allowed duties to be collected backwards in time.

In a general disclosure dated 6 August 2026, the Commission set out the definitive duties it intended to impose, as reported by EUROMETAL, citing Platts and by SteelOrbis. Each rate is a share of the duty-unpaid CIF price at the EU frontier. The Commission did not impose provisional duties, and according to both reports it rejected EUROFER’s request to collect the duties on registered imports retroactively, because EU law ties that to earlier provisional measures.

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Borçelik and Tatmetal then challenged the data behind their rates. According to EUROMETAL, which reported a Commission document dated 16 October, the exporters questioned inflation adjustments, the calculation of CIF and ex-works prices, and freight costs. The Commission found the complaints justified and recalculated the Turkish rates. EUROMETAL said market participants expect the final duties before the end of October; the Commission’s case page had earlier given 14 November as the expected publication date.

Origin / exporterRate (Aug disclosure)Rate after revisionDuty at €720/t CIFChange per tonne
Türkiye: Tatmetal5.6%3.0%€21.60−€18.72
Türkiye: other cooperating exporters7.3%4.9%€35.28−€17.28
Türkiye: Borçelik and all other imports9.7%7.8%€56.16−€13.68
India: all exporters9.5%unchanged€68.40—
Vietnam: all exporters16.0%unchanged€115.20—
Taiwan: CSC, Chung Hung, other cooperating20.7%unchanged€149.04—
Taiwan: all other imports27.0%unchanged€194.40—
Japan: all exporters28.0%unchanged€201.60—
Duty rates: Commission general disclosure of 6 August 2026 and the revision dated 16 October 2026 for Turkish exporters, as reported by EUROMETAL and SteelOrbis; not yet published in the Official Journal. € per tonne: Loharo calculation at €720/t CIF (South Europe imported CRC, McCloskey by OPIS via EUROMETAL, 23 October 2026). In practice the duty applies to each shipment’s own CIF value at the EU frontier.

Key numbers

3.0–7.8% revised Turkish anti-dumping rates, down from 5.6–9.7% in August ReportedEUROMETAL, 26 Oct 2026

€14–19/t lower duty per tonne of Turkish coil after the revision, at €720/t CIF Calc.EUROMETAL coil round-up, 23 Oct prices

9.5% vs 7.8% India’s rate against the highest Turkish rate: every Turkish rate is now below India’s Calc.SteelOrbis, Aug 2026

18 Nov 2026 latest date for definitive duties: 14 months after the 18 September 2025 initiation Calc.Regulation (EU) 2016/1036, Art. 6(9)

1.69 Mt imports from the five origins in the investigation period, 23% of the EU free market ReportedSteelOrbis, Aug 2026

1,544,759 t annual EU tariff quota for cold-rolled sheets (category 2), all origins; 50% duty out of quota FactRegulation (EU) 2026/1384, Annex

Fact = supported by the cited primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessment · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = an attributed claim not independently confirmed · Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises.

Why it matters

Analysis The cut is small in percentage points but it changes the order of origins. In August Borçelik’s 9.7% was just above India’s 9.5%. After the revision every Turkish rate is below India’s, and Tatmetal’s 3.0% is the lowest rate for any exporter in the case. At €720/t CIF, the Turkish rates are about €138–180 per tonne lower than those for Japan (28%) and Taiwan’s residual rate (27%). For buyers who must keep importing cold-rolled coil once the duties apply, Türkiye and India become the obvious origins to compare, and Japanese and most Taiwanese material is likely to be priced out.

Analysis A rough landed comparison shows why. EUROMETAL reported South European imported cold-rolled coil at €720/t CIF and Northwest European mill coil at €865/t ex-works on 23 October (coil round-up). Adding only the anti-dumping duty, Turkish coil at 7.8% comes to about €776/t and Indian coil at 9.5% to about €788/t, still below the mill price before port, handling and inland costs. Japanese coil at 28% comes to about €922/t, above it. This is a sketch with one generic CIF price, not an origin-specific offer.

Analysis The anti-dumping duty is not the only cost. Cold-rolled sheets are also category 2 in the EU’s new steel tariff-quota regime, with an annual quota of 1,544,759 tonnes for all origins and a 50% duty once a quota is used up. The five origins in this case alone shipped about 1.69 Mt in the investigation period. That is about 9% more than the whole annual quota, although the two product scopes are not identical. Access to quota is therefore likely to matter more to many buyers than a 2-point change in the dumping rate.

Who is affected

  • EU buyers and importers of cold-rolled coil: shipments that clear customs after publication pay the duty; Turkish supply becomes relatively cheaper than in August.
  • Service centres, re-rollers and coaters using imported cold-rolled substrate: origin choice for 2027 contracts now depends on both the dumping rate and quota access.
  • Turkish exporters: Borçelik, Tatmetal and other cooperating mills gain a margin over India, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan.
  • Japanese, Taiwanese and Vietnamese exporters: rates of 16–28% are unchanged in the reporting and remain much higher.
  • EU cold-rolled producers: slightly less protection against Turkish imports than proposed in August.

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What to watch

  • Publication in the Official Journal, expected by the market before the end of October and due by about 18 November. Check that the published rates match the revision reported by EUROMETAL.
  • The final list of exporters and product codes in the regulation, including the list of non-sampled cooperating Turkish companies that would pay 4.9%.
  • How the anti-dumping duty and the 50% out-of-quota duty apply together to the same shipment. The regulation and customs guidance should settle this; Loharo has not assumed an answer.
  • Quota use for cold-rolled sheets in the current quarter, which decides whether imports pay the out-of-quota rate.

Verification status: Developing

  • As of 27 October 2026 the definitive regulation has not been published in the Official Journal, so the rates could still change. The revised Turkish rates and the reasons for the revision are reported by EUROMETAL from a Commission document dated 16 October; Loharo has not seen the document. The August rates are reported by EUROMETAL (citing Platts) and SteelOrbis, which agree. The initiation date, registration, 14-month deadline and quota figures are checked against the Official Journal. All € per tonne figures, the landed comparison and the quota comparison are Loharo calculations. Re-check on publication of the regulation, and by 2 November 2026 at the latest. Last fact-check: 27 October 2026.
  • Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.

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“2,000 t HRC from India into Genoa in Q1 2027 at €610/t CFR”: landed cost with duty, quota and CBAM in one answer.Ask the Analyst

Sources

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Last fact-check: 27 October 2026 (Europe/Amsterdam).

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Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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