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Key indicatorsIndicative, as reported; see source
  • EU HRC (N. Europe)€740–760/tex-works N. Europe; tradable €740–750/t, offers €750–760/t; Fastmarkets index €748/t on 22 Oct22 Oct 2026 · Fastmarkets via EUROMETAL
  • China steel exports10.492 MtSeptember; Jan–Sep 85.641 Mt, −2.6% y/y14 Oct 2026 · China Customs via Mysteel / SMM
  • World crude steel142.4 MtSeptember, −0.2% y/y23 Oct 2026 · worldsteel
  • Iron ore fines 61%$89.20/dmtseaborne 61% fines, SMM; +$0.60/dmt d/d23 Oct 2026 · SMM
  • Turkish HMS 1&2 (80:20)~$400/tCFR, September averageOct 2026 · GMK Center
  • EU CBAM certificate€82.32Q3 2026 price, per certificate5 Oct 2026 · European Commission
  • US Section 232 steel10%–50%tariff, by product/country8 Oct 2026 · Congressional Research Service
Latest Intelligence

Global Steel Weekly: CBAM talks open, Taranto waits on its judges and Türkiye hits the EU quota wall (week ending 23 October 2026)

The week to 23 October: EU institutions opened talks on extending CBAM to downstream goods, Italy's top court reserved its Taranto ruling, EU output fell 5% and Turkish mills ran out of EU quota. China held output flat, JSW Steel warned of dearer coking coal and U.S. Steel approved a new Mon Valley mill.

By Alex MorganPublished Updated 9 min read
Illustration: steel stockyard on a port quay with rebar bundles, wire-rod coils and hot-rolled coils
Illustration of steel long products and coils waiting on a port quay

Executive summary

  • CBAM: Parliament and EU governments held their first political talks on extending CBAM to downstream steel and aluminium goods on 20 October. The list on the table ranges from 180 goods (Commission) to about 200 (Council) and 457 (Parliament), and the next round is on 30 November (our report).
  • Italy: the Court of Cassation heard the Taranto appeals on 20 October and reserved its ruling. A decree lets the furnaces be kept warm only until 15 December (our report).
  • Supply: EU crude steel output fell 5.0% to 10.1 Mt in September, with Germany down 13%. Northern European HRC held at about €748/t (our report).
  • Türkiye: SMM reports that Türkiye’s fourth-quarter EU quotas are used up. Turkish rebar slipped to $605/t and about 150,000 t of cargoes are waiting for the 1 January quota reset (SMM).
  • Asia and the Americas: China’s output held flat at 73.59 Mt (our report). JSW Steel posted record sales and expects coking coal to rise by about $25/t (our report). U.S. Steel approved a nearly $3bn hot strip mill at Mon Valley (our report).

The big picture

The week came down to supply and costs set by politics. In Europe, rules decided where steel can come from and what it costs to bring in: the CBAM talks, a bigger carbon market reserve, a low-carbon steel credit for carmakers and the draft scrap export list. At the same time, the EU made less steel, with Germany down sharply and Taranto still idle pending a court ruling. Outside Europe, China kept output flat despite falling building investment, Turkish mills had lost their EU outlet until January, and an Indian major warned that coking coal will get dearer. For buyers this means thin EU supply, capped imports and rising costs going into first-quarter 2027 contract talks, while demand stays weak enough to hold coil prices roughly flat for now.

Ten developments that mattered

1. CBAM downstream talks open, next round 30 November (EU)

The first political trilogue on adding downstream steel and aluminium goods to CBAM took place on 20 October, according to Agence Europe. The Commission proposed 180 goods from 2028 (Commission). The Council supports about 200 (EPRS), and Parliament voted on 15 September for 457 (Parliament). The next round is on 30 November. Why it matters: the length of the list decides whether imported fabricated steel goods start to carry a carbon cost from 2028, which affects EU fabricators, distributors and importers of components (our report).

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2. Taranto: Cassation reserves its ruling, furnaces warm until 15 December (Italy)

The Court of Cassation heard the appeals against the Taranto hot-end stop on 20 October and reserved its decision; the deputy prosecutor general asked for the stop to be lifted (ANSA, in Italian). A decree-law allows the furnaces to be kept warm until the court’s reasoning is published, and no later than 15 December (Gazzetta Ufficiale). The administrators have asked to put up to 8,622 of 9,626 staff on state-funded short-time work (CIGS), and the request is to be discussed after a government–union meeting on 27 October. Why it matters: Italian flat-steel buyers should not count on Taranto supply before early 2027 (our report).

3. EU crude steel falls 5% in September as Germany drops 13% (EU)

worldsteel puts EU-27 output at 10.1 Mt in September, down 5.0%, with Germany at 2.6 Mt (−13.0%), a figure WV Stahl confirms. Fastmarkets, as published by EUROMETAL, assessed Northern European HRC at €748/t ex-works on 22 October, in quiet trade. Why it matters: output is falling while prices hold, which points to weak demand. Thinner supply could move prices quickly once demand picks up (our report).

4. Carbon market reserve may hold 700 million allowances (EU)

Parliament and Council provisionally agreed to let the ETS market stability reserve keep up to 700 million allowances before cancelling the rest, up from 400 million. The Commission welcomed the deal on 21 October (Commission). Why it matters: a bigger buffer gives more room to calm a price spike in the carbon market. That matters for integrated mills’ carbon costs and for the CBAM certificate price, which follows ETS auctions (our report).

5. Parliament groups back a low-carbon steel credit for carmakers (EU)

The EPP, S&D and Renew groups agreed a compromise on 20 October that would let carmakers count up to 7.5 percentage points of their 2035 CO₂ target through EU-made low-carbon steel, according to Reuters and EUROFER. It still needs the groups’ sign-off and talks with EU governments. Why it matters: carmakers may compete harder for low-carbon flat steel, which could tighten supply and raise green premiums for other buyers (our report).

6. Draft EU waste list would shut India, Pakistan and Egypt out of EU scrap (EU, Türkiye)

The Commission’s draft list clears only Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine for EU metal waste after 21 May 2027 (Commission). Türkiye, an OECD member, is not affected. The recycling federation BIR has asked for a rethink. Why it matters: fewer export outlets could leave more scrap in Europe and ease EAF mills’ costs over time, but the draft can still change (our report).

7. Turkish mills hit the EU quota wall (Türkiye)

SMM reports that Türkiye’s fourth-quarter EU quotas are used up. Domestic rebar fell $5 to $605/t ex-works, offers to Europe of about $600/t FOB found almost no buyers, and about 150,000 t of cargoes for December shipment are waiting for the quota reset on 1 January. These are SMM’s assessments and a single source. Across the wider region, worldsteel puts Middle East output down 20.4% in September. Why it matters: a wave of Turkish long products is likely to clear customs in early January, which could weigh on EU rebar and wire-rod prices in the first quarter.

8. China holds output flat as property investment falls 20.6% (China)

The National Bureau of Statistics reported September crude steel output of 73.59 Mt (+0.1%), while official data show that property investment fell 20.6% in January–September. Why it matters: output is not falling as fast as Chinese demand, so pressure on third markets, and on EU quota volumes through them, continues (our report).

9. JSW Steel posts record sales and expects coking coal to rise $25/t (India)

JSW Steel made a consolidated net profit of ₹5,359 crore in July–September on record sales of 7.46 Mt (company filing). Reuters reports that its chief executive expects coking coal to rise by about $25/t in October–December; we found no transcript to confirm the figure. Why it matters: coking coal is bought on the same seaborne market by European blast-furnace mills, so this signals higher costs in first-quarter 2027 offers (our report).

10. U.S. Steel approves a nearly $3bn Mon Valley hot strip mill (United States)

U.S. Steel, owned by Nippon Steel, will build a new hot strip mill at Edgar Thomson, raising capacity from about 2.2 to 3.5 million tons a year. First production is expected in late 2029, once permits are granted. Why it matters: the US is building more of its own coil capacity behind a 50% tariff, so a reopening to imported coil becomes less likely and steel shut out of the US adds to pressure on the EU over time (our report).

Also noted

  • tk accelis: thyssenkrupp will hand 49% of its materials distribution business to its shareholders on 27 October and list it in Frankfurt on 28 October (our report).
  • Tubos Reunidos: the company has asked a court to liquidate its listed parent. The sale of its Basque seamless tube plants continues, with five bids ranging from €1 to €27.5m (our report).
  • UK CBAM: HMRC’s illustrative steel rate is £9.69/tCO₂e, about £32/t on hot-rolled coil at default values (our report).
  • Ukraine: Metinvest’s chief executive told the BBC that he wants Ukraine carved out of the EU steel quotas; the 50% duty above quota stays (our report).
  • Iron ore: SMM’s 61% Fe seaborne index eased to $88.60/dmt on 22 October (SMM via Hellenic Shipping News).
  • Explainers this week: steel trade defence explained and lessons from the 2020–22 boom and bust.

Numbers of the week

IndicatorLatestChange / contextSource
World crude steel, September142.4 Mt−0.2% y/yworldsteel
EU-27 crude steel, September10.1 Mt−5.0% y/y; Germany 2.6 Mt (−13.0%)worldsteel
China crude steel, September73.59 Mt+0.1% y/y; Jan–Sep 724.77 Mt (−2.9%)NBS
China property investment, Jan–Sep−20.6%year on yearNBS
N. Europe HRC, ex-works€748/t (22 Oct)€746/t on 14 OctFastmarkets via EUROMETAL
Iron ore fines 61% Fe, seaborne$88.60/dmt (22 Oct)$88.80 on 15 OctSMM via Hellenic Shipping News
Turkish rebar, ex-works$605/t (week to 23 Oct)−$5 w/w; Q4 EU quotas used upSMM
ETS reserve ceiling (provisional deal)700m allowancesfrom 400mEuropean Commission
UK CBAM illustrative steel rate£9.69/tCO₂e≈ £32/t HRC on default values (Loharo calc.)HMRC
JSW Steel consolidated sales, Jul–Sep7.46 Mtrecord; +13% y/yJSW Steel

Week ahead and key dates

  • 27 October: government–union meeting on the former Ilva at Palazzo Chigi; tk accelis spin-off date.
  • 28 October: tk accelis starts trading in Frankfurt; SSAB publishes its third-quarter report.
  • 2 November: POSCO Holdings presents provisional third-quarter results (filing).
  • 10 November: Allegheny County public hearing on the Mon Valley hot strip mill permit (ACHD); written comments close on 17 November.
  • 21 November: deadline for the Commission to set the first list of non-OECD countries allowed to import EU waste.
  • 30 November: second political trilogue on the CBAM downstream extension.
  • 15 December: latest date until which Taranto’s furnaces may be kept warm under decree-law 185.

Verification status: Verified

  • Material factual claims are supported by appropriate primary sources or clearly attributed reporting and market assessments; Loharo analysis is labelled separately. Last fact-check: 24 October 2026.
  • Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.

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