Global Steel Weekly: worldsteel turns flat, EU mills restart 10 Mt and gas hits a 2022 high (week ending 16 October 2026)

The big picture

This was a week of a flatter demand outlook meeting a tighter EU market. worldsteel’s October outlook took the growth out of 2026, while inside Europe quotas, trade defence and carbon rules kept import supply narrow and EU mills busier. Prices barely moved: buyers report weak demand and high stocks, and mills have little reason to cut while the Q4 import window is shut. Energy is the new pressure point, with European gas back at its highest level since the 2022 crisis. Analysis Loharo’s reading of the week.

Ten developments that mattered

1. worldsteel cuts 2026 demand to flat (global)

worldsteel’s October Short Range Outlook, released on 12 October, puts 2026 global demand at 1,722 Mt (−0.1%) and 2027 at 1,752 Mt (+1.7%), down from +0.3% and +2.2% in April. China is forecast at −2.0% in 2026 and −1.0% in 2027, while demand outside China still grows 4.0% in 2027. EU and UK apparent use is revised to −0.3% for 2026.

Why it matters: Volume plans for 2026–27 built on April’s numbers are too high, and a shrinking China keeps export pressure on every other market. Who is affected: Traders and mills planning 2027 volumes; buyers in markets exposed to Chinese exports. Read more.

2. EUROFER: about 10 Mt of EU capacity restarted (EU)

EUROFER said on 13 October that around 10 Mt of crude-steelmaking capacity resumed production during 2026 and that at least €3.4bn of investment decisions had been taken. The release described these as early signs roughly 100 days after the tariff measure began, but did not give restart dates or establish that the measure caused the restarts. No plant list or method was published, so the 10 Mt remains an industry estimate Uncertain. EUROFER is asking the Commission for anti-circumvention rules.

Why it matters: More EU capacity running should help lead times, but the lobbying direction points to stricter origin and melt-and-pour checks, not looser rules. Who is affected: EU buyers of flat and long products; importers relying on quota or third-country processing. Read more.

3. EU HRC steady with the import window shut (EU)

Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe HRC index was €746/t ex-works on 14 October, down €0.88 week on week; Italy was €745/t, up €3.75 (EUROMETAL). Buyers quoted weak demand and high stock levels. Q4 import quotas are exhausted and India’s country quota ran out the week before (SMM, 14 Oct).

Why it matters: With no tariff-free import headroom until the January reset, EU mills hold pricing power this quarter even as demand stays soft. Who is affected: EU service centres and end users buying spot coil for Q4 and Q1 rolling. Read more.

4. China’s September exports: 10.49 Mt (China)

Customs data on 14 October showed September exports of 10.492 Mt and January–September exports of 85.641 Mt, down 2.6% on a year earlier (SMM, Mysteel). That is the fifth month in a row above 10 Mt, though below the 11.04 Mt ship-tracking estimate. Chinese HRC export offers slipped to about $490–494/t FOB (SMM).

Why it matters: EU buyers can barely use cheap Chinese coil because of the 50% out-of-quota duty and CBAM, but Chinese tonnes push Indian, Vietnamese and Turkish mills to compete harder for EU quota. Who is affected: Asian and Turkish exporters; EU importers at the January quota reset. Read more.

5. EU opens wire rod expiry review (EU, China)

The Commission published notice C/2026/5244 on 12 October, opening an expiry review of the anti-dumping duty on wire rod from China after a request from EUROFER. The duty stays in force during the review: 24.0% for most Chinese producers and 7.9% for the Valin Group (Regulation (EU) 2021/1805).

Why it matters: The duty will not lapse in the next 12 to 15 months, so Chinese wire rod stays uncompetitive for EU buyers. Who is affected: Wire rod importers (sampling deadline 19 October) and downstream wire and mesh makers. Read more.

6. GOES safeguard quotas confirmed (EU)

The provisional safeguard on grain-oriented electrical steel and transformer cores, in force since 25 September under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2133 (Commission), combines quotas with price thresholds. This week Loharo confirmed the country quotas in the Commission’s TARIC database, including 30,693.68 t for Chinese GOES to 26 February 2027. The binding text in Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2133 sets tariff-code-specific value thresholds and the shortfall-duty formula, plus a separate €1,140/t duty on transformer-incorporated cores outside the quotas.

Why it matters: Transformer makers buying imported GOES or cores face a quota-plus-threshold system that needs a careful customs read. Who is affected: Transformer and power-equipment manufacturers; GOES importers from China, Japan, South Korea and Türkiye. Read more.

7. UK weighs aligning its 2027 CBAM with the EU (UK)

EUROMETAL reported on 14 October that the UK was considering EU-style product benchmarks and country-specific default values, citing an official presentation that is not publicly available Uncertain. On 16 October, the UK Government confirmed single product-level default emissions values for 2027–28 and committed to country-specific values from 2029 (ministerial statement). The published default-values notice remains a draft (draft notice). Q1 2027 rates published on 16 October are illustrative; official rates are due before year-end (UK Government).

Why it matters: Closer alignment would reduce the risk of high-carbon steel diverting to the UK and make a future UK–EU link more likely. Who is affected: Traders moving steel between the UK and EU; UK importers preparing for 2027. Read more.

8. voestalpine’s Donawitz EAF installed (Austria)

voestalpine said on 12 October that the new electric arc furnace at Donawitz is largely installed and cold commissioning has started. First melts are planned for the first half of 2027, with about 850,000 t a year of lower-carbon capacity at full operation.

Why it matters: Lower-carbon long products from Donawitz get a firmer start date, but no new tonnes before mid-2027. Who is affected: Buyers of rail, wire rod and tube feedstock with Scope 3 or tender carbon requirements. Read more.

9. SSAB starts building a SEK 3.3bn quenching line (Sweden)

SSAB began construction on 13 October of a new quenching line at Oxelösund, adding about 100,000 t a year of wear and protection plate such as Hardox and Armox, with production planned for 2030.

Why it matters: Tight supply of quenched and tempered plate should ease, but only from 2030. Who is affected: Mining, earthmoving, truck and defence buyers of premium plate. Read more.

10. European gas at its highest since 2022 (energy)

Dutch TTF front-month gas was at €86.03/MWh on the morning of 15 October, its highest level since December 2022, according to OilPrice.com. EU storage was 74% full on 14 October against a five-year average of about 86% (Gas Infrastructure Europe, as reported), and Middle East LNG flows remain far below last year.

Why it matters: Gas and power are a large part of EAF, reheating and coating costs, so energy surcharges and mill cost pass-through are worth watching into winter. Who is affected: EU mills, especially EAF producers, and buyers on contracts with energy surcharge clauses. Read more.

Also noted

• Loharo published explainers on US Section 232 tariffs (50% on steel since 6 April 2026, 25% for UK melted-and-poured steel), Canada’s steel quotas and surtaxes (50% surtax above quota) and the UK CBAM from 2027.
• Background pieces this week: global steel risk outlook by region, a counterparty risk checklist, a CBAM landed-cost worked example, EAF versus blast furnace, how raw material costs feed through to steel prices and the July 2026 market recap.

Prices and costs snapshot

Indicator	Latest	Change / context	Source
N. Europe HRC, ex-works	€746/t (14 Oct)	−€0.88 w/w; +€8.50 m/m	Fastmarkets via EUROMETAL
Italy HRC, ex-works	€745/t (14 Oct)	+€3.75 w/w; +€8.75 m/m	Fastmarkets via EUROMETAL
China HRC export offers	$490–494/t FOB (14 Oct)	−$1–2/t w/w	SMM
Iron ore fines 61% Fe, seaborne	$88.80/dmt (15 Oct)	−$0.70 d/d; $89.20 on 9 Oct	SMM via Hellenic Shipping News
Turkish HMS 1&2 (80:20)	~$400/t CFR	September average; no newer monthly figure	GMK Center
EU CBAM certificate, Q3 2026	€82.32	Quarterly price; unchanged this week	European Commission
Dutch TTF gas, front month	€86.03/MWh (15 Oct, 09:00)	Highest since December 2022	OilPrice.com

Trade and policy tracker

Measure	Status this week	Key dates	Source
EU steel tariff-quota measure (30 categories, 50% out of quota)	Q4 quotas exhausted; EUROFER seeks anti-circumvention rules	Q1 2027 quotas open 1 Jan 2027; Commission to assess scope by 31 Dec 2026	European Commission
EU anti-dumping duty, wire rod from China (24% / 7.9%)	Expiry review opened 12 Oct; duty stays in force	Sampling 19 Oct; comments 18 Nov 2026	Notice C/2026/5244
EU provisional safeguard, GOES and cores	In force since 25 Sep; TARIC quotas confirmed	Provisional measure ends 26 Feb 2027	Commission TARIC
UK CBAM	Product-level defaults in 2027–28; country-specific defaults from 2029; wider alignment package unconfirmed	Starts 1 Jan 2027; 16 Oct rates illustrative; final rates pending	UK Government, 16 Oct; HMRC; EUROMETAL
US Section 232 on steel	No change this week	50% since 6 Apr 2026	Proclamation 11021
Canada steel quotas and surtax	No change this week	Surtax extended to 27 Jun 2027	CBSA Customs Notice 25-24

Live quota balances for the EU, UK and Canada are on the Steel Trade Measures Tracker.

Raw materials and energy

• Iron ore: seaborne 61% fines were $88.80/dmt on 15 October, against $89.20 on 9 October (SMM via Hellenic Shipping News).
• Scrap: the latest figure is still the September average of about $400/t CFR for Turkish HMS 80:20 (GMK Center); we found no newer published monthly figure this week.
• Coking coal: we did not find a free, attributable benchmark this week, so we do not quote one.
• Gas: TTF near €86/MWh, the highest since December 2022, with EU storage at 74% on 14 October and Middle East LNG flows still sharply lower (OilPrice.com).
• Carbon: the Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price is €82.32 (European Commission).

Regional round-up

• EU: about 10 Mt of capacity restarted (industry figure), HRC flat near €745/t, quotas exhausted, two trade defence cases moving (wire rod and GOES), and gas at a multi-year high.
• UK: the government is weighing EU-style CBAM benchmarks before the 1 January 2027 start; the steel rate is still not published.
• China: exports stayed above 10 Mt for a fifth month; worldsteel sees Chinese demand falling 2.0% in 2026.
• India and wider Asia: worldsteel forecasts Indian demand growth of 7.9% in 2026; India’s EU Q4 country quota is used up.
• Türkiye and Middle East: Türkiye’s Q4 EU quota for non-alloy and other alloy wire rod (61,147 t) is exhausted, per the Commission report of 9 October (our report); the unresolved Middle East conflict is still weighing on Gulf LNG supply.
• Americas: no new US or Canadian steel measures this week; Section 232 stays at 50% and Canada’s 50% over-quota surtax applies until 27 June 2027.

What to watch next week

• Mon 19 Oct: deadline for importers and producers to come forward for sampling in the Chinese wire rod expiry review (Loharo calculation from the notice).
• Tue 20 Oct: Court of Cassation hearing on the Taranto (ex-Ilva) plant in Italy.
• Fri 23 Oct: the Commission’s weekly tariff-quota usage report, usually published on Fridays; our tracker updates after it.
• Late October (date not yet announced): worldsteel’s September crude steel production figures and CISA’s detailed September export breakdown, including billet and exports to the EU.
• Ongoing: any Commission response to EUROFER’s anti-circumvention request, and mill offers for January rolling.

Sources

Primary sources

• worldsteel Short Range Outlook, October 2026 — World Steel Association, 12 October 2026 (tables, PDF)
• European steel industry restarts 10 million tonnes of capacity in 2026 — EUROFER, 13 October 2026
• Protecting EU steelmaking — European Commission
• Notice of initiation of an expiry review, wire rod from China (C/2026/5244) — Official Journal of the EU, 12 October 2026
• Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/1805 — Official Journal of the EU
• Commission imposes provisional safeguard measures on imports of grain-oriented electrical steel — European Commission, 18 September 2026
• Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2133 — Official Journal of the European Union, 18 September 2026
• Tariff quota consultation, order numbers 09.0535 to 09.0542 — European Commission TARIC (checked 16 October 2026)
• voestalpine greentec steel Donawitz: installation of the electric arc furnace completed — voestalpine, 12 October 2026
• SSAB starts construction of new quenching line in Oxelösund — SSAB via Cision, 13 October 2026
• CBAM policy summary — HMRC, GOV.UK
• October 2026 CBAM Rate and Default Emissions Values update — UK Parliament written ministerial statement, 16 October 2026
• CBAM Default Values Force of Law Notice (Draft) — HM Treasury/HMRC, 16 October 2026
• Illustrative CBAM rates and worked example — HM Treasury/HMRC, 16 October 2026
• Price of CBAM certificates — European Commission
• Proclamation 11021 — Federal Register, 9 April 2026
• Customs Notice 25-24 — Canada Border Services Agency

Supporting sources

• Local HRC prices hold steady in Northern Europe, Italy on limited trading activity — EUROMETAL / Fastmarkets, 15 October 2026
• European HRC: duty and currency risks narrow import margins — SMM, 14 October 2026
• China’s September steel exports at 10.492 million mt — SMM, 14 October 2026
• GACC: China exported 10.492 Mt of steel in September — Mysteel, 14 October 2026 (Chinese)
• HRC export prices fall $1–2/t — SMM, 14 October 2026
• UK considering reforms to its upcoming CBAM framework — Eurometal, 14 October 2026
• Europe’s gas prices close to 2022 high as Hormuz LNG flows remain limited — OilPrice.com, 15 October 2026
• MMi daily iron ore report, 15 October 2026 — SMM via Hellenic Shipping News
• Average scrap prices in Turkey rose by $28 per tonne in September — GMK Center

Related on Loharo

• worldsteel cuts 2026 steel demand to flat
• EUROFER: 10 Mt of EU steel capacity restarted
• China’s September steel exports: 10.49 Mt
• EU opens expiry review of anti-dumping duty on Chinese wire rod
• EU provisional safeguard on grain-oriented electrical steel
• UK weighs aligning its 2027 CBAM with the EU’s
• voestalpine completes EAF installation at Donawitz
• SSAB starts building quenching line in Oxelösund
• Last week’s briefing (week ending 9 October 2026)

Information as of 16 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.