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Steel market recap, July 2026: EU quotas bite from day one

July 2026 steel recap: the EU's 18.35 Mt tariff quotas started on 1 July with a 50% duty over quota, and Northern Europe HRC rose to €711.25/t by 31 July.

By Loharo EditorialPublished Updated 5 min read
Aerial view of a steel yard with coils, plates and rail wagons at golden hour
Illustration of an aerial view of a steel yard at golden hour

This monthly recap covers July 2026. Later data is in our newer coverage.

Executive summary

  • The EU’s new steel tariff quota regime started on 1 July: 18,345,922 tonnes across 26 product categories, with a 50% duty above quota.
  • Several country quotas filled in days. Türkiye used up its Q3 hot-rolled and coated sheet quotas almost at once, by preliminary trade estimates.
  • Northern European HRC rose about €28/t over the month, to €711.25/t ex-works on 31 July (Fastmarkets).
  • China exported 10.121 Mt of steel in July, up 2.9% year on year.
  • Salzgitter signed for Germany’s largest EAF, 2.5 Mt/yr, at HKM in Duisburg.

Key numbers

18,345,922 t EU tariff quotas opened, 26 categories, from 1 Jul 2026 FactReg. (EU) 2026/1457, recital 1

€711.25/t HRC, ex-works Northern Europe, 31 Jul 2026, up €28.12 m/m FactFastmarkets via EUROMETAL, 3 Aug 2026

€75.28 CBAM certificate price for Q2 2026, published 6 Jul 2026 FactEuropean Commission

10.121 Mt China steel exports, July 2026, +2.9% y/y FactChina Customs (GACC)

Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures or stated assumptions · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.

EU prices

Domestic hot-rolled coil firmed through July as the quota regime cut import offers. Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe index ended the month at €711.25/t ex-works on 31 July, up €28.12/t month on month (EUROMETAL, 3 August). Demand stayed thin with the summer holidays: buyers quoted workable levels of €700–715/t while mills offered €715–750/t. Mills reported order books full into September and were offering October delivery (EUROMETAL, 31 July). Fastmarkets also corrected its 24 July index to €710.00/t after a methodology error, which shows why we cite assessments with their dates.

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Trade rules

EU tariff quotas (Reg. 2026/1384 and 2026/1457)

The Steel Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 entered into force on 25 June 2026 and replaced the old safeguard from 1 July. It opens tariff quotas of 18,345,922 tonnes over 26 product categories, with an out-of-quota duty of 50% ad valorem. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457 of 29 June split those quotas by country, by quarter, with new order numbers (09.98xx). The first quarter ran 1 July to 30 September.

Several allocations filled almost at once. By Kallanish’s preliminary calculation, Türkiye had exhausted its Q3 quotas for hot-rolled sheet and category 4.A metallic-coated sheet by 3 July (EUROMETAL, 3 July). Uncertain This was a trade estimate, not Commission data. By 16 July some China and “other countries” quotas were also over-subscribed (SteelOrbis, 16 July).

CBAM

2026 is the first year in which CBAM costs money. On 6 July the Commission published the Q2 2026 certificate price of €75.28 per tonne of CO2, down slightly from €75.36 in Q1 (European Commission). It applies to emissions in goods imported in April to June. Certificates can only be bought from February 2027, on the central platform.

US Section 232

The US regime did not change rates this month. Since 8 June 2026, under the proclamation of 4 June, steel and steel products pay a 50% Section 232 duty, many derivatives 25%, and some equipment a temporary 15% until 31 December 2027 (Federal Register, 4 June 2026).

China exports

China exported 10.121 Mt of steel products in July, down 1.9% from June but up 2.9% year on year, according to customs data released on 7 August (GACC; SteelOrbis). January to July exports were 64.995 Mt, down 4.4%, which trade press link to the export licence system China introduced in January. Billet exports stayed high at about 2.5 Mt in the month.

Production

worldsteel’s July data, published on 24 August, put world crude steel output at 149.2 Mt, down 0.3% year on year, with China at 76.9 Mt, down 3.6% (worldsteel).

Company moves

  • Salzgitter / HKM. After taking 100% of HKM, Salzgitter’s HKM signed with Tenova on 28 July to build an EAF of up to 2.5 Mt a year in Duisburg, Germany’s largest, with work from August 2026 and completion in 2029 (Salzgitter, 29 July).
  • thyssenkrupp. Low Rhine water disrupted raw material supply and led thyssenkrupp Steel to cut hot metal output in Duisburg (EUROMETAL). Uncertain Secondary report; we have not seen a company statement.

Our view

July showed the new quotas bind hard for the biggest suppliers. Importers who rely on Türkiye or China should treat each quarter’s opening day as the delivery deadline and plan for the 50% duty if they miss it.

This is a Loharo assessment based on the sources cited. It contains no expert quotations.

Verification status: Partially verified

  • Quota volumes, the 50% duty, the CBAM price, US rates, China exports and worldsteel figures were checked against official sources. HRC prices are Fastmarkets assessments as reported by EUROMETAL. The Türkiye exhaustion date is a Kallanish preliminary estimate, and the thyssenkrupp output cut is from trade press only; both are labelled Uncertain.
  • Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some details from secondary sources or still being confirmed (marked Uncertain in the text); Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.

Ask the Analyst

“500 t HRC from Turkey into Antwerp in January”: landed cost with duty, quota and CBAM in one answer.Ask the Analyst

Sources

Primary sources

Supporting sources

Information as of 13 October 2026. Each figure is given with the source and date it refers to. Price assessments are those reported by the named agency. This recap is market intelligence, not legal, customs or investment advice.

More recaps

See all monthly recaps and the Trade rules hub.

By Loharo Editorial. Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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