China’s steel industry PMI fell 2.3 points to 43.0 in October as new orders from home buyers slumped, but new export orders stayed in growth at 51.3, according to Mysteel’s monthly survey published on 3 November. For EU buyers the direct effect is limited: Chinese hot-rolled coil has no EU duty-free quota room left this quarter and pays a 50% duty above it. The step worth taking now is for anyone buying flat or coated steel from other Asian origins: check that each mill test certificate states the melt-and-pour country and heat number, as the EU has required since 1 October.
What the survey showed
In its October report (Mysteel, in Chinese), Mysteel said the new-orders index fell from 44.9 to 37.0, while the output index rose from 42.0 to 44.5. Mills kept producing even as orders dried up. The new-export-orders index eased from 54.0 to 51.3 but stayed above the 50 line that separates growth from contraction, 14.3 points above the overall new-orders index.
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Advertise with LoharoPrices fell. Mysteel put the October average for 4.75mm hot-rolled coil at 3,266 yuan a tonne, down 72 yuan (2.2%) on September and 4.5% lower than a year earlier. The raw-material purchase price index collapsed from 75.7 to 23.5, which helped margins: the share of the 247 mills Mysteel tracks that made a profit rose 4.33 points. The finished-goods stock index fell from 44.7 to 39.9.
On trade, Mysteel said China’s hot-rolled plate exports fell about 24% in January–September, while rebar exports rose about 46%. It also noted that South Korea’s Trade Commission had issued a final anti-dumping ruling on Chinese galvanised steel with duties of 22.34% to 33.67%. Mysteel expects prices to keep edging lower in November.
Loharo calculation: what 3,266 yuan means in euros
Analysis. At the ECB reference rate of 7.4590 yuan per euro on 3 November (ECB), 3,266 yuan is about €438 a tonne (3,266 ÷ 7.459). The October fall of 72 yuan is about €9.70 a tonne. Mysteel does not say whether its average includes China’s 13% VAT; if it does, the net price is about €387 a tonne (438 ÷ 1.13). This is a domestic Chinese price, not an export offer, so it is a guide to the level of the market rather than to a landed price in Europe.
Loharo reconciliation: more export orders, but fewer exports?
Analysis. Mysteel’s export-orders index points to growth, yet the China Iron and Steel Association expects exports to fall moderately, as we reported on 2 November. The two need not conflict. A PMI is a diffusion index: it counts how many mills report more orders than the month before, not how many tonnes are sold.
| Signal | Source | What it measures | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| New export orders 51.3 | Mysteel PMI, October | Share of mills reporting more export orders | Slightly more mills gaining orders |
| Exports to fall moderately | CISA, 30 October | Expected tonnes | Lower volumes ahead |
| Hot-rolled plate exports −24%, rebar +46% | Mysteel, Jan–Sep | Tonnes by product | Shift away from flat products |
Read together, the figures suggest Chinese mills are finding orders in long products and less-defended markets, while flat-steel export tonnes shrink as more countries add duties. That is our reading, not a forecast from either source.
What EU buyers should do
No change is needed for Chinese hot-rolled coil, which already pays the 50% out-of-quota duty: the “other countries” pools for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, coated and plate were used up from 1 October (Loharo quota tally). Where you buy flat or coated steel from other Asian origins with quota room, ask the supplier to show the melt-and-pour country and heat number on each mill test certificate. Under the new regime, that declaration has been required since 1 October (Mechanical Fasteners; Loharo explainer).
What to watch
- Around 7 November: China’s October customs data, to see whether export tonnes fall as CISA expects.
- Mid-November: NBS October crude steel output, to test whether output keeps running ahead of orders.
- Early December: Mysteel’s November PMI and price average.
Verification status: Verified
- All PMI, price, profit, trade and Korean duty figures come from Mysteel’s October report of 3 November, read in Chinese in full; the Korean ruling and the November outlook are attributed to Mysteel. The exchange rate is the ECB reference rate. The euro conversion and the reconciliation are Loharo calculations.
- Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.
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“1,000 t HRC from China into Rotterdam at €540/t CFR”: landed cost with duty, quota and CBAM in one answer.Ask the AnalystSources
Primary sources
- Mysteel调研：10月钢铁PMI降至43.0，内需继续走弱，原料成本快速回落 (October steel PMI falls to 43.0, in Chinese) — Mysteel, 3 November 2026
- Euro foreign exchange reference rate, CNY — European Central Bank, 3 November 2026
Supporting sources
- EU steel rules face a WTO challenge as melt-and-pour paperwork goes live — Mechanical Fasteners, 3 November 2026
Related on Loharo
- China’s steel output ran about 100 Mt above home use in nine months as mill stocks hit a four-year high
- EU steel quotas four weeks into Q4
- EU steel tariff quotas three months in: 50% duty, melt-and-pour proof and a looming Q1 2027 crunch
Last fact-check: 4 November 2026.
