Executive summary
- CBAM certificates cost €82.32 for goods imported in Q3 2026 (Q1 €75.36, Q2 €75.28). In our worked example with labelled assumptions, they add about €60/t to the landed cost of blast-furnace HRC when the supplier provides verified emissions data.
- Without verified data, importers must use default values, which carry a 10% mark-up in 2026 and 20% in 2027. In our example, that roughly doubles the CBAM cost, to about €131/t.
- The certificate count is reduced to reflect the free allocation EU mills still receive. The CBAM factor of 97.5% in 2026 and 95% in 2027 makes this deduction slightly smaller each year.
- Practical priorities: get verified installation-level emissions data from suppliers, budget for CBAM in each quarter’s landed cost, and keep it separate from any quota duty (50% above quota).
Key numbers
€82.32 CBAM certificate price for Q3 2026 imports (1 certificate = 1 tCO₂e) FactEuropean Commission
10% / 20% / 30% Mark-up on default values for iron and steel in 2026 / 2027 / 2028 onwards FactImplementing Reg. (EU) 2026/1740
97.5% → 95% CBAM factor in 2026 and 2027 FactDEHSt
≈ €60/t Example CBAM cost: blast-furnace HRC with verified data (assumptions below) Calc.Loharo calculation
≈ €131/t Example CBAM cost using a default value with the 2026 mark-up Calc.Loharo calculation
Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures or stated assumptions · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.
Background
Since 1 January 2026, importers of iron and steel into the EU have been building up a carbon liability under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The basics are set out in our article on the Q3 certificate price. In 2026 the Commission publishes one certificate price per quarter: €75.36 for Q1, €75.28 for Q2 and €82.32 for Q3. Certificates go on sale on the central platform in February 2027. The first annual declaration and surrender, covering 2026 imports, are due by 30 September 2027 (DEHSt).
This explainer is about something more practical: how CBAM changes the price you actually pay per tonne, and which inputs matter most.
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Advertise with LoharoThe three inputs that drive the CBAM cost
- Embedded emissions per tonne. This can be the actual, verified value for the installation that made the steel, or a default value set by the Commission. For iron and steel, the defaults are increased by a mark-up of 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% from 2028 (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740). The mark-up is designed to reward importers who get real data.
- The free-allocation adjustment. EU producers still receive some free emission allowances, so the number of certificates an importer must surrender is reduced accordingly. The reduction uses CBAM benchmarks set by production route and the CBAM factor, which is 97.5% in 2026 and 95% in 2027 according to DEHSt.
- The certificate price. This is the average EU ETS auction price for the relevant quarter in 2026, and weekly prices from 2027.
For context, worldsteel’s sustainability indicators put the average CO₂ intensity of the blast furnace route at 2.34 t per tonne of crude steel, and scrap-based EAF steel at 0.69 t. Real values vary widely by plant.
Why it matters commercially
Worked example: 1 tonne of hot-rolled coil
The assumptions below are illustrative only. They are not official values for any CN code, origin or plant, and the real calculation in the CBAM registry has more steps. Use the example to understand the mechanics, not to price a contract.
| Input | Value used | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Customs value (CIF, EU port) | €560/t | Assumption |
| Conventional customs duty within quota | 0% | Assumption (check TARIC for your CN code and origin) |
| Verified embedded emissions (blast-furnace route) | 2.00 tCO₂e/t | Assumption, close to the worldsteel route average of 2.34 |
| Default value before mark-up | 2.60 tCO₂e/t | Assumption (real defaults vary by product and country) |
| CBAM benchmark used for the deduction | 1.30 tCO₂e/t | Assumption |
| CBAM factor | 97.5% (2026), 95% (2027) | Fact (DEHSt) |
| Certificate price | €82.32 (Q3 2026), also used for 2027 | Fact for Q3 2026; assumption for 2027 |
| Port handling and inland freight | €25/t | Assumption |
| Step | Verified data (2026) | Default value (2026) | Verified data (2027) | Default value (2027) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embedded emissions used | 2.00 | 2.60 × 1.10 = 2.86 | 2.00 | 2.60 × 1.20 = 3.12 |
| Free-allocation deduction (benchmark × CBAM factor) | 1.30 × 0.975 = 1.2675 | 1.2675 | 1.30 × 0.95 = 1.235 | 1.235 |
| Certificates per tonne | 0.7325 | 1.5925 | 0.765 | 1.885 |
| CBAM cost per tonne at €82.32 | €60.30 | €131.09 | €62.97 | €155.17 |
| Landed cost (CIF + duty + CBAM + €25) | €645.30 | €716.09 | €648.97 | €740.17 |
Three things stand out. Analysis
- Data quality is worth more than the certificate price. In this example, switching from the default value to verified data saves about €71/t in 2026 and €92/t in 2027. A €10 rise in the certificate price adds only about €7/t to the cost on verified data.
- The cost creeps up even if prices do not. As the CBAM factor falls, the deduction shrinks: with verified data and an unchanged certificate price, our example cost rises from €60.30 to €62.97 per tonne between 2026 and 2027.
- CBAM is small next to the quota duty. A cargo that clears after its quota is used up pays the 50% out-of-quota duty on top. On a €560/t customs value, that is €280/t, more than four times the CBAM cost in our example.
For EAF steel, both the embedded emissions and the applicable benchmark are lower. The net CBAM cost is likely to be much smaller, but the exact figure depends on the route-specific benchmark, so we have not calculated it here. For your own product lines, Loharo’s CBAM Cost Check compares default values with supplier data in a sourced PDF.
Who is affected
Importers of blast-furnace steelCost risk The largest CBAM cost per tonne, and the most to gain from verified supplier data.
Buyers of EAF-route importsLower cost Lower embedded emissions should mean a much smaller CBAM bill, depending on the benchmark that applies.
Small importersThreshold Below 50 t a year per importer, the de minimis exemption applies; above it, authorisation as a CBAM declarant is needed (DEHSt).
Non-EU millsData demand Mills that provide verified installation data become cheaper to buy from than those that do not.
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What to watch next
- 4 January 2027: the Commission publishes the Q4 2026 certificate price.
- 1 January 2027: revised CBAM benchmarks apply, and prices become weekly (DEHSt; European Commission).
- February 2027: certificate sales open on the central platform.
- 30 September 2027: first annual declaration and surrender, covering 2026 imports.
- Review of default values: the Commission says default values and mark-ups will be revised by December 2027 at the latest, and possibly in 2026.
Verification status: Verified
- Certificate prices, CBAM factors, mark-ups, the de minimis threshold and deadlines were checked against the European Commission, DEHSt, EUR-Lex (Implementing Regulations 2025/2621 and 2026/1740) and Regulation 2026/1384. Route intensities are from worldsteel. All per-tonne costs are Loharo calculations from clearly labelled hypothetical inputs, not official values.
- Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some figures from secondary/market sources; Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.
Ask the Analyst
“1,500 t HRC from India into Felixstowe at €600/t CFR”: landed cost with duty, quota and CBAM in one answer.Ask the AnalystSources
Primary sources
- Price of CBAM certificates — European Commission, DG Taxation and Customs Union, Q3 price published 5 October 2026
- CBAM Definitive Regime from 01/01/2026 — German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), last updated 19 March 2026
- Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621: default values — EUR-Lex, 16 December 2025
- Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740 (amending the default values) — EUR-Lex, 2026
- Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 — EUR-Lex, OJ, 24 June 2026
- Sustainability Indicators Report 2025 — World Steel Association, 2025
Information as of 15 October 2026 (re-checked). This is an evergreen explainer: figures are dated and linked to their sources, and calculations state their assumptions. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment, legal or tax advice.
