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China’s steel exports hold above 10 Mt a month as billet shipments surge and new trade barriers go up

China exported 10.155 Mt of steel in August, its fourth straight month above 10 Mt, and ship-tracking points to a record September. Billet exports are the fastest-growing part, which makes the EU's new melt-and-pour rule more relevant.

By Loharo EditorialPublished Updated 6 min read
Steel billets and wire rod being loaded onto a cargo ship at a port
Illustration of steel billets and wire rod loaded onto a cargo ship

Executive summary

  • China exported 10.155 Mt of finished steel in August (+6.8% y/y), the fourth month in a row above 10 Mt. January–August exports were 75.149 Mt, down 3.0% (customs data via Mysteel and CISA).
  • Growth is in semi-finished steel. Billet exports reached 14.045 Mt in January–August, up 52.1% year on year (CISA).
  • Mysteel ship-tracking puts September export loadings at 11.04 Mt, a 2026 monthly high and 11.0% more than a year earlier. Official September data are due in mid-October.
  • Destinations are shifting. Shipments to the African Union rose 18.8% year to date, while exports to the GCC fell 34.3% and to the EU fell 5.8% (CISA).

Key numbers

10.155 Mt China finished-steel exports, Aug 2026 (+6.8% y/y) FactChina Customs via Mysteel / CISA

14.045 Mt Billet exports Jan–Aug (+52.1% y/y) FactCISA, via Zhitong/Webull

11.04 Mt September export loadings (ship-tracking estimate; official data due mid-Oct) UncertainMysteel AIS

−34.3% Exports to the GCC, Jan–Aug (African Union +18.8%) FactCISA, via Zhitong/Webull

Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.

What happened

China’s customs data, reported by Mysteel on 8 September, show 10.155 Mt of steel product exports in August 2026 and 75.149 Mt for January–August, 3.0% below the same period of 2025. Imports were small, at 0.434 Mt in August. The China Iron and Steel Association’s (CISA) monthly trade report, released on 29 September, adds detail. August was the fourth month in a row above 10 Mt. The average export price was US$722.2/t, up 0.9% on the month and 3.5% on the year. Exports of hot-rolled thin and wide strip rose by 165,000 t month on month, to their highest level since April 2025.

Semi-finished steel is the main story. CISA reports that ‘primary products’ exports (billet, pig iron, DRI and recycled steel raw materials) reached 14.125 Mt in January–August, up 52.6%. Billet alone was 14.045 Mt, up 52.1%, even though billet exports have fallen for two months, by 23.8% in August. Indonesia is still the largest billet market.

Early indicators point to a strong September. Mysteel’s AIS-based export shipment tracker recorded 11.04 Mt loaded in September, up 7.1% on August and 11.0% on the year, and the highest month of 2026. Its cumulative January–September figure is 90.25 Mt, 1.0% below 2025. Shipments fell during the National Day holiday (29 September–5 October), and Mysteel expects them to recover. These are tracking estimates, not customs statistics.

Policy at home and trade barriers abroad

China reintroduced export licences for about 300 steel tariff codes from 1 January 2026. The Ministry of Commerce describes them as a monitoring and quality-tracking tool that does not limit export volumes. At home, the NDRC’s 2026 plan calls for ‘orderly reductions’ in steel capacity, and crude output is down 3.1% year to date according to worldsteel. Barriers abroad keep rising. Viet Nam’s anti-dumping duties of 23.1%–27.83% on certain Chinese hot-rolled coil remain in force while an interim review requested by Baosteel runs, with interested parties required to register by 21 October. The EU’s new tariff-quota distribution gives China no country allocation for hot-rolled flat products (category 1A), so it competes for a residual ‘other countries’ pool of only 22,256 t a year.

Why it matters commercially

  • Chinese steel is going to markets with fewer barriers. Africa is the only region where CISA reports year-to-date growth (+18.8%), and exports to Egypt rose 82.2% month on month in August. AnalysisAfrican and some Middle Eastern buyers will keep getting competitive Chinese offers. Mills in those markets, and exporters from Türkiye and India, will feel the price pressure.
  • Billet exports run into melt-and-pour rules. Since 1 October, EU importers must declare where steel was first melted and poured (Implementing Regulation 2026/1963). Finished products rolled in a third country from Chinese billet will be recorded as Chinese-melted steel. The Commission will use these data in quota distribution from October 2027. Traders handling re-rolled material from South-East Asia or the Middle East should check where the feedstock comes from now.
  • Chinese export prices set a global reference. An average export price of about US$722/t across all products, with lower prices for commodity grades, acts as a ceiling on what other exporters can charge into open markets. That widens the gap between protected markets like the EU and the US and the rest of the world.
  • More trade defence is likely. If September customs data confirm Mysteel’s record, expect more anti-dumping and safeguard cases in Asia, the GCC and Latin America. Contracts for affected origins should include clauses for changes in duties.

Who is affected

African and Middle Eastern buyersCheaper offers They will keep getting competitive Chinese offers; Africa is the only region with year-to-date growth.

Mills there and exporters from Türkiye and IndiaPrice pressure Chinese offers compete directly in these markets.

Traders in re-rolled materialCompliance Products rolled from Chinese billet are recorded as Chinese-melted steel in the EU.

Exporters in markets with new trade casesDuty risk More anti-dumping and safeguard cases are likely in Asia, the GCC and Latin America.

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What to watch next

  • Mid-October: China customs September trade data. The August figures were released around 8 September.
  • Late October: CISA’s September breakdown by product and region, which will show whether the billet decline and the shift towards Africa continue.
  • 21 October: deadline to register as an interested party in Viet Nam’s interim review of hot-rolled coil duties on Baosteel.
  • Weekly: Mysteel shipment tracking after the holiday. A quick recovery would point to continued strong exports in Q4.

Verification status: Partially verified

  • Customs headline totals come from Mysteel’s report of China Customs data and match CISA’s report. CISA detail is taken from a Chinese financial-media summary (Zhitong via Webull). September figures are Mysteel AIS estimates, not official data. EU quota facts were checked on EUR-Lex.
  • Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some figures from secondary/market sources; Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.

Sources

Primary sources

Supporting sources

Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.

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By Loharo Editorial. Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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