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Trade & Tariffs

EU steel quotas four weeks into Q4: 65 of 283 lines used up, and most duty-free hot-rolled room sits with eight origins

By 27 October, 53% of the EU’s fourth-quarter duty-free steel volume had been allocated and every open pool for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, coated and plate was shut. Loharo maps where duty-free room is left, using official TARIC balances.

By Tavishi BalanPublished Updated 5 min read
Illustration: rows of steel coils stacked on a European port quay beside a moored bulk carrier at dawn
Illustration of imported steel coils waiting on a European port quay

Four weeks into the fourth quarter, the EU’s steel import quotas are more than half used. By the TARIC allocation of 27 October, 65 of the 283 quota lines were exhausted and about 53% of the quarter’s duty-free volume had been allocated, a Loharo tally of TARIC balances mirrored by Barrett Steel. For buyers of hot-rolled, cold-rolled, coated and plate, the residual pools open to any origin are all shut, so duty-free supply until 31 December depends on a few named countries. Steel imported outside a quota pays a 50% duty (Regulation (EU) 2026/1384).

What the official balances show

The quarter opened on 1 October with about 4.59 million tonnes (Mt) of duty-free volume across 26 product categories. By the TARIC update of 8 October, 35.9% had been used and 45 lines were exhausted, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). By 27 October, about 2.43 Mt (53%) had gone and 20 more lines had closed. Only 29% of the quarter has passed.

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Many lines closed on the first day. TARIC gives 1 October as the exhaustion date for the hot-rolled quotas of Türkiye (09.9801) and Australia (09.9810), the hot-rolled pool for free-trade partners (09.9500) and the “other countries” pools for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, metallic-coated (4A) and plate. India’s 149,319 t hot-rolled quota ran out on 6 October (09.9803). Indonesia has 15 t left (09.9702).

Where duty-free room is left, by product

Product (category)Used upLargest balances, t (27 Oct)
Hot-rolled coil and strip (1A)Türkiye, India, Australia, “other countries”, both free-trade pools; Indonesia 15 t leftJapan 137,835; Ukraine 116,698; Egypt 73,677; South Korea 67,648; Taiwan 60,069; Serbia 50,056; Brazil 42,320; UK 37,791; Vietnam 13,660
Cold-rolled sheet (2)“Other countries” and the free-trade “other countries” poolSouth Korea 37,678; India 34,329; free-trade pool 33,671 (unused); Taiwan 33,582; Japan 29,434; Türkiye 28,266
Metallic-coated, 4A (mainly automotive galvanised)Türkiye, Taiwan, “other countries”, the free-trade “other countries” pool, Japan and EgyptVietnam 81,038; India 19,711, of which about 5,055 t awaits allocation; South Korea 12,750; free-trade pool 3,067
Metallic-coated, 4B (other galvanised)China, Türkiye and “other countries”South Korea 69,949; UK 32,360; free-trade pool 15,238; India 4,775
Quarto plate (7)India, Türkiye and “other countries”Indonesia 33,795; South Korea 29,137, with about 5,311 t awaiting allocation; free-trade pool 11,542
Source: TARIC quota consultation, European Commission, read 28 October 2026 (balances after the 27 October allocation). Order numbers are linked. “Awaiting allocation” is TARIC’s indicative figure.

Outside flat products, hollow sections, gas pipes, stainless bars and organic-coated sheet are each more than 85% used, on the Barrett Steel data. Two rebar lines are almost empty: Algeria has 988 t left (09.9886) and China 35 t (09.9888). Our earlier coverage explains how the regime works and the pro-rata allocation proposal for overbooked lines.

Why it matters for buyers

Analysis The headline 53% understates the squeeze. Several large balances belong to origins that are hardly shipping. Japan has used 49 t of its 137,885 t hot-rolled quota, and Ukraine 4,185 t of 120,882 t. About 95% of the 619,000 t of hot-rolled room still open sits with eight origins that each hold more than 30,000 t. For anyone who bought hot-rolled from Türkiye, India or the open pools, duty-free tonnes this quarter now mean switching supplier, not just switching ships.

Analysis Vietnam is the line to watch. It has used 87% of its hot-rolled quota and was last drawn on 19 October. If it keeps up its October pace, it could close in early November, but that is a Loharo estimate and depends on when cargoes clear. South Korea’s hot-rolled line has used about 1,770 t a day on average. At that rate its 67,648 t would last into early December. In cold-rolled, Japan and Taiwan have barely used their lines. EUROMETAL links buyer caution on cold-rolled imports to the anti-dumping duties imposed in August on five origins, including Japan and Taiwan.

Analysis There is one relief valve. Under Article 3(4) of Regulation 2026/1384, volumes unused in one quarter roll over to the next one until 30 June 2027. Untouched Japanese, Ukrainian and Taiwanese tonnes would add to first-quarter 2027 volume for those origins. Lines that are already used up carry nothing forward. Buyers who depend on Türkiye or the open pools face the same rush when quotas reopen on 1 January, as Turkish rebar sellers do already (our weekly briefing).

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What to watch next

  • Vietnam hot-rolled (09.9807) and India coated 4A (09.9835), the large flat-steel lines closest to running out.
  • The final Q4 allocations. Article 3(3) of the regulation stops allocation on the Commission’s 20th working day after 31 December, so declarations made in late December can still be allocated against Q4.
  • 1 January 2027, when first-quarter quotas open with any carried-over volume.

Verification status: Verified

  • Every balance, initial volume, exhaustion date and awaiting-allocation figure for a named order number was read on the official TARIC quota pages on 28 October 2026 (after the 27 October allocation). The totals across all 283 lines (53% used, 65 exhausted) are Loharo calculations from Barrett Steel’s mirror of the TARIC data, updated at 04:00 CET on 28 October; the 8 October baseline is SMM’s. The duty, carry-over and allocation rules come from Regulation (EU) 2026/1384. Run-out dates and rates of use are Loharo estimates. Balances change with each allocation and leave out requests still being processed. Last fact-check: 28 October 2026.
  • Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.

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