Know what’s moving steel prices and your landed cost, and what to watch next.

LoharoGlobal Steel Intelligence

Weekly Briefing

Loharo

Key indicatorsIndicative, as reported; see source
Latest Intelligence

Global Steel Weekly: Taranto halts, EU quotas bite and CBAM costs climb (week ending 9 October 2026)

Loharo's weekly round-up for steel buyers and traders covers the Taranto hot-end halt, Q4 EU quota exhaustion, the €82.32 Q3 CBAM price, EUROFER's flat demand outlook, record Chinese export loadings and softer raw materials.

By Loharo EditorialPublished Updated 7 min read
Aerial view of a steel yard with coils, plates and rail wagons at golden hour
Illustration of an aerial view of a steel yard at golden hour

Executive summary

  • Supply shock in Italy: ADI suspended all hot-end production at Taranto on 9 October after court deadlines. The Cassation hearing is on 20 October.
  • EU import window shut: Türkiye’s Q4 HRC quota was reported used up on 1 October and India’s is effectively full. Melt-and-pour evidence has been mandatory since 1 October.
  • Higher carbon cost: the Q3 CBAM certificate price is €82.32, up 9.4% on Q2. EUROFER forecasts EU steel demand growth of only 0.1% in 2026.
  • Prices: Northern European HRC held at about €747/t ex-works (Fastmarkets). Turkish scrap stalled at about $400/t CFR, and 61% Fe ore fell to $89.20/dmt (SMM).

Key numbers

€746.88/t N. Europe HRC, ex-works, 7 Oct (+€45.63 since 8 Jul) FactFastmarkets via EUROMETAL

€82.32 CBAM certificate, Q3 2026 (+9.4% vs Q2) FactEuropean Commission

144.2 Mt World crude steel, Aug (−1.2% y/y) Factworldsteel

43.4 Eurozone construction PMI, Sept FactS&P Global via ConstructUK

Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.

The big picture

This week showed how much the European steel market now depends on policy and supply disruptions rather than on demand. Tariff quotas and the new melt-and-pour paperwork are keeping imports out, while the halt at Italy’s largest integrated works and low Rhine water have tightened domestic supply. Even so, prices barely moved, because construction, the largest steel-using sector, is still contracting sharply. In this environment, buyers should focus on quota timing, contract terms and spreading volumes across suppliers rather than on predicting the next price move.

Ten developments that mattered

1. Taranto’s hot end stops (Italy)

Acciaierie d’Italia made the last pig-iron cast from Blast Furnace 2 and suspended all hot-end production from 9 October. The furnace is in pre-heating mode. Genoa and Novi Ligure will shut temporarily by 15 November. The Court of Cassation hears the appeals on 20 October, and the deadline for final bids for the assets has moved to 8 November. So what: a significant Italian flat-steel supplier is offline at a time when imports are limited by quota.

2. EU Q4 quotas run out at the start

SteelOrbis tracking, reported via EUROMETAL, showed Türkiye’s Q4 country quota for hot-rolled flat products (160,573 t) used up on 1 October and India’s requests at about 103% of its 149,318 t. Requests for the FTA pool reached 194,001 t against 120,920 t available. Allocations are expected to be confirmed around 13 October. So what: Q1 2027 looks likely to be crowded too, and sources report Turkish and Indian tonnage already sold for Q1 arrival.

3. Melt-and-pour evidence is now mandatory

Since 1 October, every import covered by Regulation 2026/1384 needs proof of the country of melt and pour and the heat number. Implementing Regulation 2026/1963 makes the mill test certificate the main evidence. Imports declared without proof are rejected. So what: ask suppliers for complete mill test certificates before shipment.

4. CBAM Q3 price: €82.32

The Commission published the Q3 2026 certificate price on 5 October (Q2: €75.28). Certificates go on sale in February 2027, and the first surrender, covering 2026 imports, is due by 30 September 2027. So what: book accruals now, and give priority to suppliers that can provide verified actual emissions data.

5. EUROFER: demand flat, exports down 20%

EUROFER’s 1 October outlook forecasts apparent steel consumption growth of 0.1% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. It reports EU exports to third countries down 20% in the first half and EU output at a record low of 125.8 Mt in 2025. It also says gas prices recently peaked near €80/MWh.

6. HRC: mills push, buyers resist

Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe HRC index was €746.88/t on 7 October, stable week on week. Italy was at €741.25/t. Buyers called €730–740/t workable. Import CFR offers of €635–670/t met bids of €600–620/t, and Asian DDP offers of €760–780/t were no cheaper than domestic coil.

7. Construction weak, manufacturing improving

The eurozone construction PMI was 43.4 in September and the manufacturing PMI 52.9, a 52-month high. German factory orders fell 10.6% in August because of volatile large orders. Excluding those, the fall was only 0.1%.

8. Raw materials ease

Turkish HMS 80:20 was assessed at about $400/t CFR, with an EU cargo reported below that. SMM’s 61% Fe index fell to $89.20/dmt on 9 October. Comments on the EU’s draft non-OECD scrap destination list, which leaves out India, Egypt and Morocco, are due by 16 October.

9. China: record September loadings

Mysteel ship-tracking puts September steel export loadings at 11.04 Mt, the highest month of 2026 and 11.0% more than a year earlier. Official August exports were 10.155 Mt (customs via Mysteel). Billet exports for January–August were up 52.1% (CISA).

10. North America: the effects of tariffs spread

The Congressional Research Service’s 8 October fact sheet lists US Section 232 steel tariffs at 10%–50% depending on product and country. In Canada, Stelco has begun 300–350 layoffs at Hamilton after idling finishing lines, citing a slump in demand for its cold-rolled and galvanised products linked to US tariffs.

Also noted

Numbers of the week

IndicatorLatestChange / contextSource
N. Europe HRC, ex-works€746.88/t (7 Oct)Stable w/w; +€45.63 since 8 JulFastmarkets via EUROMETAL
Italy HRC, ex-works€741.25/t (7 Oct)−€3.75 d/dFastmarkets via EUROMETAL
CBAM certificate, Q3 2026€82.32+9.4% vs Q2European Commission
World crude steel, Aug144.2 Mt−1.2% y/yworldsteel
China steel exports, Aug10.155 Mt+6.8% y/yChina Customs / CISA
Iron ore 61% Fe seaborne$89.20/dmt (9 Oct)−$1.15 d/dSMM
Turkish HMS 1&2 80:20~$400/t CFRSept avg +$28 m/mMesteel / GMK Center
Eurozone construction PMI, Sept43.4Aug: 43.0S&P Global
Eurozone manufacturing PMI, Sept52.952-month highS&P Global / HCOB
Price assessments are proprietary and are reported as published by the cited outlets.

Who is affected

EU flat-steel buyersLess leverage The import window is shut and domestic supply is tighter, though prices barely moved.

EU importersHigher carbon cost The Q3 CBAM price rose 9.4% and melt-and-pour proof is mandatory.

Italian buyersSupply risk Taranto’s hot end is halted pending the 20 Oct hearing.

Construction and long-product buyersWeak demand Construction, the largest steel-using sector, is still contracting sharply.

Week ahead and key dates

  • Around 13 Oct: confirmation of EU Q4 FTA quota allocations (market expectation).
  • Mid-Oct: China September trade and output data.
  • 16 Oct: consultation closes on the EU draft list for waste and scrap exports to non-OECD countries.
  • 20 Oct: Italy’s Court of Cassation hearing on Taranto.
  • 21 Oct: registration deadline for Viet Nam’s interim review of hot-rolled coil anti-dumping duties on Baosteel.
  • Late Oct: worldsteel September production data. Quarterly reports from the major iron ore miners also usually appear in the second half of October.
  • 1 Nov: new Stegra CEO. 8 Nov: deadline for final ADI bids. 15 Nov: Genoa and Novi Ligure shut by this date.

Verification status: Partially verified

  • Official data (EUR-Lex, Commission, EUROFER, worldsteel, Destatis, CRS) were checked at source. Prices and quota usage are attributed third-party assessments. Taranto is a developing story. The ‘So what’ notes are Loharo analysis.
  • Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some figures from secondary/market sources; Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.

Sources

Primary sources

Supporting sources

Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.

Stay ahead of the steel market.

Get our weekly briefing on global steel supply, trade policy, tariffs and market developments—with analysis of what matters to your business.

Free weekly briefing. Unsubscribe anytime. We measure opens and clicks to improve the briefing. See our Privacy Policy.

, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

By Loharo Editorial. Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

Related intelligence