Loharo Steel Market Brief: EU mills open 2027 coil talks as the import door narrows (week ending 30 October 2026)

Lead: the 2027 coil contract round starts from a sold-out spot market

Northwest European mills have started negotiating first-half and full-year 2027 hot-rolled coil (HRC) contracts and are seeking increases of €100–150/t over the second half of 2026, according to McCloskey by OPIS, published by EUROMETAL. Market participants quoted in the same report expect settlements around €50–80/t higher. At Euroblech, mills were offering contracts at €840–860/t for HRC and €940–960/t for hot-dip galvanised, roughly €100/t above spot, according to Kallanish via EUROMETAL.

Spot is firm rather than strong. Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe HRC index stood at €751.25/t ex-works on 28 October, up €4.58/t on the week, and mills were reported largely sold out of 2026 production and focused on January 2027 delivery, according to Fastmarkets via EUROMETAL. A Northern European buyer told Fastmarkets the quotas had cut import volumes by 10–20%. In Italy, January offers of €740–765/t ex-works met buyers reluctant to go above €750/t, citing sluggish end-user demand (same report).

Producers back the direction but not the full ask. SSAB guides fourth-quarter realised prices for SSAB Europe “somewhat higher” than the third quarter, which it defines as 0–5%, and says import volumes fell after the EU trade measures took effect on 1 July (SSAB Q3 report). On the import side, about 53% of the fourth quarter’s 4.59 Mt duty-free quota volume had been allocated by the 27 October allocation and 65 of 283 quota lines were used up, according to a Loharo tally of TARIC quota data mirrored by Barrett Steel; anything above quota pays a 50% duty (Regulation (EU) 2026/1384).

Why buyers should care: on every 10,000 t a year, the gap between the mills’ ask and the expected settlement is worth about €0.2–1.0m (Loharo calculation from the figures above). Mills sold out for 2026 and shrinking quota room give sellers the near-term leverage; weak end-use demand and buyer resistance at €750/t are the counterweight. Our contract-talks report and our SSAB report have the detail.

Three signals to keep on your screen

1. EU trade defence keeps stacking up (EU, trade rules)

From 31 October, EU customs register imports of steel wire rope from India, Thailand and Türkiye, which keeps retroactive anti-dumping duties possible if conditions are met (Regulation (EU) 2026/2396). Those three origins supplied about 55% of extra-EU wire-rope tonnage in 2025 (Loharo calculation from Eurostat Comext). Separately, the Commission revised its planned cold-rolled duties on Türkiye down to 3.0–7.8%, according to a disclosure reported by EUROMETAL; the final regulation was not yet in the Official Journal as of 30 October.

Buyer implication: contracts for wire rope and Turkish cold-rolled coil signed now should say who carries any duty. Next signal: the cold-rolled regulation, which must be adopted by about 18 November, 14 months after the case opened (Loharo calculation under Regulation (EU) 2016/1036, Article 6(9)). Detail: wire rope, Turkish cold-rolled (labelled Developing) and hot-rolled stainless.

2. Japan closes a stainless outlet; Taiwan is the route to watch (Asia, stainless)

Japan’s definitive anti-dumping duties on nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless apply from 31 October at 27.7–42.1% for China and 3.6–20.1% for Taiwan (Japan Ministry of Finance, rate notice). Taiwan had used about 60% of its fourth-quarter EU quota for cold-rolled stainless by the 28 October allocation (Loharo calculation from TARIC).

Buyer implication: if Taiwanese material loses Japanese sales, more may be offered into Europe while quota lasts; at the current pace the Taiwan line could run out between mid-November and early December (Loharo projection, not a forecast of shipments). Next signal: the next TARIC allocations. Our report.

3. The Rhine is up but still short (Germany, logistics)

The Kaub gauge read 52 cm on 29 October, up from 17 cm a week earlier (PEGELONLINE), and the German federal hydrology institute’s forecast gives a 100% probability of staying below the 77 cm low-water mark through 10 November (BfG forecast). At 80 cm and below on the Kaub gauge, container barge operator Contargo replaces its fixed low-water surcharge scale with case-by-case agreement (Contargo).

Buyer implication: price Rhine barge deliveries that pass Kaub as part loads into mid-November and confirm the surcharge basis. Next signal: the BfG forecast update. Our report.

Loharo read

Analysis The contract ask rests more on supply rules than on demand. The sourced premises: mills are sold out for 2026, quota room is shrinking, and new trade cases keep adding duty risk to imports (above), while demand stays weak by SSAB’s and buyers’ own accounts. Costs give mills a further argument: Baosteel reported Shanxi coking coal up 34.9% quarter on quarter (Baosteel results via 10jqka; our report). For a buyer, that points to the €50–80/t range the market already expects rather than the full ask, with the quota reset on 1 January as the main source of fresh import offers. This is an interpretation of the week’s evidence, not a price forecast.

Week ahead

• 31 October: EU registration of wire-rope imports from India, Thailand and Türkiye takes effect; Japan’s stainless duties apply.
• Early November: weekly TARIC quota allocations; watch HRC lines from Vietnam and Korea and Taiwan’s cold-rolled stainless line (our quota report).
• 10 November: end of the current Kaub forecast window.
• By about 18 November: deadline for the EU’s definitive cold-rolled flat steel duties on India, Japan, Taiwan, Türkiye and Vietnam.

Verification note

Verification status: Verified. Every material fact above is linked to its source; market prices and the Turkish rate revision are third-party reports and are attributed as such. Loharo calculations and projections are labelled. Most figures were checked in this week’s Loharo articles; the 28 October Fastmarkets prices were checked against the EUROMETAL article on 30 October 2026.

Sources

• European coil and green steel round-up — EUROMETAL (McCloskey by OPIS), 26 October 2026
• European HRC prices mixed amid tight availability, sluggish demand — EUROMETAL (Fastmarkets), 29 October 2026
• Euroblech: European coil mills express optimism over annual contracts — EUROMETAL (Kallanish)
• SSAB report for the third quarter 2026 — SSAB
• EU steel quota tracker — Barrett Steel
• Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 (steel tariff quotas) — Official Journal of the EU
• Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2396 (wire rope registration) — Official Journal of the EU, 30 October 2026
• EU imports of steel wire rope, CN 7312 10 81–98, 2025 — Eurostat Comext
• EU revises AD duties on Turkish cold-rolled flat steel — EUROMETAL
• Regulation (EU) 2016/1036, Article 6(9) — Official Journal of the EU
• Anti-dumping duties on stainless cold-rolled products from China and Taiwan — Japan Ministry of Finance, 27 October 2026
• TARIC quota 09.9867 (Taiwan, cold-rolled stainless), Q4 2026 — European Commission
• Kaub gauge — PEGELONLINE (WSV); 14-day Kaub forecast — BfG
• Low-water conditions — Contargo
• Baosteel third-quarter 2026 results — 10jqka

Loharo tool: check quota, anti-dumping and safeguard exposure for a specific product and origin with the Trade Measures Check.

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Last fact-check: 30 October 2026.

Correction, 30 October 2026: the quota figures (53% allocated, 65 of 283 lines used up) are a Loharo tally of TARIC quota data mirrored by Barrett Steel, as in our quota report; an earlier version credited them to Barrett Steel tracker data. The EUROMETAL coil round-up is dated 26 October, not 23 October. No figures changed.