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Raw Materials

Scrap and iron ore send soft signals: Turkish HMS stalls near $400/t as seaborne ore slips below $90

Turkish import scrap jumped in September but has stopped rising at about $400/t CFR as rebar demand weakens. Seaborne iron ore has dropped below $90/dmt. An EU plan to restrict scrap exports to some non-OECD countries adds a longer-term risk.

By Loharo EditorialPublished Updated 6 min read
Grab crane lifting ferrous scrap at a scrap yard
Illustration of a grab crane lifting ferrous scrap in a scrap yard

Executive summary

  • Turkish import HMS 1&2 (80:20) averaged $400/t CFR in September, up $28 (GMK Center). Mesteel’s latest weekly assessment is also $400/t, and an EU-origin cargo has reportedly sold below that Uncertain.
  • SMM’s 61% Fe seaborne index fell to $89.20/dmt on 9 October, and PB fines were $89.50/dmt. The gap between 61% and 65% ore widened to $20.20.
  • China imported 845.27 Mt of iron ore in January–August (+5.5%), even though its crude steel output fell 3.1%.
  • A draft EU list under the Waste Shipment Regulation would stop metal-scrap exports to India, Egypt and Morocco from 21 May 2027. Consultation closes on 16 October.

Key numbers

$400/t Turkish HMS 1&2 (80:20) CFR, September average (+$28) FactGMK Center

$89.20/dmt SMM 61% Fe seaborne iron ore, 9 Oct FactSMM via Hellenic Shipping News

$20.20/dmt Spread between 65% and 61% Fe ore ($109.40 vs $89.20) Calc.Loharo, from SMM

21 May 2027 Proposed start of EU scrap-export ban to India, Egypt, Morocco (draft list) FactRecycling International

Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.

What happened

Scrap: the September rally has stalled

Turkish import scrap averaged $400/t CFR for HMS 1&2 (80:20) in September, according to GMK Center, which is $28 more than in August. Prices opened the month at $380–382/t and peaked at $402–404/t, but buyers pushed back late in the month and European material changed hands at $395/t. GMK puts the rally down to scarce billet and pig iron from Russia and Ukraine, Brent crude above $105 and freight costs of roughly $50/t ex-EU and $60/t ex-US. Türkiye imported 1.4 Mt of scrap in August, bringing the January–August total to 12.8 Mt (+3.9%).

In early October the market was hesitant. Mesteel assessed HMS 1&2 (80:20) at $400/t CFR, roughly unchanged week on week, with an EU-origin cargo reportedly booked below $400/t Uncertain. Turkish rebar export offers slipped to $615–625/t FOB. Mesteel reported LME scrap futures at $396.50/t for October and $395.50/t for November, with the curve rising towards about $400/t in Q1 2027. In the EU, GMK reports German E3 scrap at $332/t ex-works (+$11 over September) and Italian scrap at $358/t (−$13). Low Rhine water and rail disruption raised collection and delivery costs, and recyclers have switched much scrap traffic to trucks.

Iron ore: below $90, with Simandou coming

SMM’s daily report of 9 October showed the MMi 61% seaborne index at $89.20/dmt, down $1.15 on the day, and the 65% index at $109.40/dmt. The spread between them widened to $20.20. PB fines (62%) were $89.50/dmt CFR Qingdao, and the SGX current-month contract was about $90.50/dmt. China’s customs data, reported by Mysteel, show iron ore imports of 108.54 Mt in August and 845.27 Mt in January–August (+5.5%). On the supply side, SimFer shipped 2.2 Mt from Simandou in the first half of 2026, with port commissioning on track for Q1 2027.

Coking coal: little public data

Up-to-date spot benchmarks for premium hard coking coal are mostly behind paywalls. The latest figure Loharo could source is from Reuters, as reported by SMM: Australian premium hard coking coal (FOB) averaged $236/t over January–July 2026, 25% more than a year earlier. Reuters links the increase to disrupted Australian output, new mines taking longer than planned to reach capacity, the war in the Middle East and the Shanxi mine accident in China.

Policy: EU scrap exports

Recycling International reports that the Commission’s draft list of non-OECD countries allowed to receive specified non-hazardous waste under the revised Waste Shipment Regulation proposes authorising just five countries for certain metal streams: Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine. India, Egypt and Morocco are left out. Should the Commission adopt the list as drafted, shipments of these scrap streams to any non-OECD country left off it would be prohibited from 21 May 2027. According to BIR, Egypt took 1.86 Mt of EU-27 recycled steel exports in 2025. Türkiye is an OECD member, so the non-OECD list does not cover it.

Why it matters commercially

  • The cost balance favours ore-based steelmaking. Analysisscrap held near $400/t while ore fell below $90/dmt. That helps blast-furnace producers relative to scrap-based EAF producers, especially in Türkiye, where finished-steel prices are falling. Turkish mills will keep pushing for lower scrap prices, and high freight costs limit how far suppliers can cut.
  • Fewer export outlets would mean more scrap at home. If the draft list is adopted, EU scrap that now goes to Egypt, India and other excluded markets would have to find buyers in Türkiye, other OECD countries or EU mills. Analysisthat would weigh on EU domestic scrap prices and on CFR Türkiye prices from 2027. It would also help EU EAF projects that need scrap.
  • Grade spreads matter more than the headline price. A $20/dmt gap between 61% and 65% ore reflects how much value buyers place on high-grade feed for emissions and productivity. DRI and pellet buyers should expect that premium to persist.
  • Coking coal is still a cost risk. Reuters estimates that each $10/t rise in coking coal adds about $7–9/t to blast-furnace steelmaking costs. High coal prices offset part of the benefit of cheaper ore.

Who is affected

Turkish EAF millsMargin squeeze Scrap held near $400/t while finished-steel prices fall; mills keep pushing for lower scrap.

Blast-furnace producersSupportive Ore below $90/dmt helps them relative to scrap-based EAF producers.

EU scrap exportersFewer outlets If the draft list is adopted, scrap now going to Egypt, India and Morocco must find other buyers from 2027.

DRI and pellet buyersPremium persists A ~$20/dmt gap between 61% and 65% ore reflects the value of high-grade feed.

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What to watch next

  • 16 October: consultation closes on the EU draft list of non-OECD destinations (BIR asked members for evidence by 12 October).
  • Mid-October: China’s September ore imports and crude steel output.
  • Mid to late October: quarterly production reports from the major iron ore miners, which normally come out in the second half of October.
  • Ongoing: Turkish mills’ deep-sea scrap buying after the holidays, and the October LME scrap settlement against the November contract ($395.50/t at last report).
  • Q1 2027: Simandou port commissioning (SimFer target).

Verification status: Partially verified

  • Customs volumes, SimFer data and policy details were checked against the cited sources. Scrap and ore prices are third-party assessments (GMK, Mesteel, SMM) as publicly reported. Mesteel’s full article is paywalled; only its public summary was used. No current public coking-coal benchmark could be verified.
  • Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some figures from secondary/market sources; Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.

Sources

Primary sources

Supporting sources

Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.

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By Loharo Editorial. Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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