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Latest Intelligence

Steel market recap, September 2026: first quota quarter ends, CBAM price rises

HRC firm at €746.88/t, the first EU quota quarter closes, CBAM Q3 at €82.32, China exports above 10 Mt and new EAF investments at Košice and Linz.

By Alex MorganPublished 5 min read
Illustration: harbour crane unloading hot-rolled steel coils at a European port quayside
Illustration of a harbour crane lowering steel coils onto a misty port quay

This monthly recap covers September 2026. Later data is in our newer coverage.

Executive summary

  • Northern European HRC was €746.88/t ex-works on 30 September, up only €5.63/t in the month (Fastmarkets).
  • The first EU quota quarter closed on 30 September. Q4 quotas opened on 1 October and several filled within days.
  • China exported 10.492 Mt in September (customs, 14 October), about 3.3% more than August’s 10.155 Mt and the fifth month in a row above 10 Mt.
  • voestalpine took delivery of its Linz EAF, and Nippon Steel’s U. S. Steel Košice approved a €0.9 billion EAF investment.
  • World crude steel in August was 144.2 Mt, down 1.2% (worldsteel, 24 September).

Key numbers

€746.88/t HRC, ex-works Northern Europe, 30 Sep 2026, +€5.63 m/m FactFastmarkets via EUROMETAL

10.492 Mt China steel exports, September 2026; Jan–Sep 85.641 Mt, −2.6% y/y FactChina Customs via Mysteel / SMM, 14 Oct 2026

8.9 Mt EU-27 crude steel, August 2026, −1.0% y/y Factworldsteel, 24 Sep 2026

€82.32 CBAM price for Q3 2026 imports, published 5 Oct 2026 FactEuropean Commission

Fact = supported by the cited primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessment · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = an attributed claim not independently confirmed · Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises.

EU prices

The price rise slowed in September. Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe HRC index was €746.88/t ex-works on 30 September, up €6.88/t week on week and €5.63/t month on month (EUROMETAL). Trade remained thin, as buyers waited to see how much import volume the Q4 quotas would bring. Over the three months the index rose by roughly €64/t from late June Calc., based on the July month-on-month change plus the August and September readings.

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Trade rules

EU tariff quotas

The first quarter under Regulation 2026/1457 ended on 30 September. Q4 quotas opened on 1 October, and within days EUROMETAL reported allocations exhausted across key categories for Türkiye, China, India and others, as well as “other countries” (EUROMETAL, October). The regulation’s country split runs to 31 December, so the Commission must adopt a new distribution act before 1 January 2027.

CBAM

The Q3 import quarter closed on 30 September. Its certificate price, published on 5 October, is €82.32, up 9% on Q2 Calc. (European Commission). For a product with 2 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of steel that is about €165 per tonne before free allocation adjustments Calc.. This is an illustrative figure: actual liability depends on verified emissions, the benchmark phase-in and any carbon price paid abroad.

US Section 232

The US regime did not change rates this month. Since 8 June 2026, under the proclamation of 4 June, steel and steel products pay a 50% Section 232 duty, many derivatives 25%, and some equipment a temporary 15% until 31 December 2027 (Federal Register, 4 June 2026). The August proposal to add 14 derivative products was still pending at the end of the month, as far as we can find (BIS notice).

China exports

Customs data released on 14 October showed exports of 10.492 Mt in September, about 3.3% more than August’s 10.155 Mt Calc., the fifth month in a row above 10 Mt. January to September exports were 85.641 Mt, down 2.6% on a year earlier, a narrower fall than the 3.0% after August (Mysteel, SMM). August’s 10.155 Mt, released on 8 September, was up 6.8% year on year (China Customs via China Steel Market). Mysteel’s port data had put September shipments at 11.04 Mt (Mysteel), so the official figure came in about 0.55 Mt lower Calc. Uncertain The steel association said exports to the EU and Gulf were weak (CISA via Zhitong); the headline September release gives no breakdown by destination or product. See also our report on the September customs data.

Production

worldsteel reported on 24 September that August world crude steel was 144.2 Mt, down 1.2%. The EU-27 made 8.9 Mt, down 1.0% (worldsteel).

Company moves

  • U. S. Steel Košice (Nippon Steel) decided on about €0.9 billion for a new EAF and air separation unit, after signing a grant agreement with Slovakia for up to €350 million on 15 September (Nippon Steel, 16 September).
  • voestalpine received the core equipment for its Linz EAF, 790 tonnes in total, on track for operation in the first half of 2027 and about 1.6 Mt a year (voestalpine, 21 September).
  • ArcelorMittal said on 25 September it could not safely restart operations at Kryvyi Rih in Ukraine after repeated missile strikes (company release via GlobeNewswire).

Our view

September set the pattern for the new regime: firm EU prices, quotas that fill on opening day, and a rising CBAM price. We think buyers should budget for both a quota-timing risk and a CBAM cost on every non-EU quote from 2027.

This is a Loharo assessment based on the sources cited. It contains no expert quotations.

Verification status: Verified

  • Material factual claims are supported by appropriate primary sources or clearly attributed reporting and market assessments; Loharo analysis is labelled separately. Last fact-check: 24 October 2026.
  • Key: Verified = material factual claims are supported by an appropriate primary source or clearly attributed reporting/market assessments; Partially verified = a specific material claim remains unsupported, contradicted or materially overstated; Analysis = interpretation or forecast with sourced premises; Developing = material facts are checked but the situation is still changing.

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Sources

Primary sources

Supporting sources

Information as of 13 October 2026, except the China customs figures, which are as of 14 October 2026. Each figure is given with the source and date it refers to. Price assessments are those reported by the named agency. This recap is market intelligence, not legal, customs or investment advice.

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Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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